Emeritus prof Raimo Hamalainen from Aalto University will present the Department of Statistical Science seminar with a talk entitled, "Path Dependence in Operational Research - How the Modeling Process Can Influence the Results".

Abstract: In Operational Research practice there are almost always alternative paths that can be followed in the modeling and problem solving process. Path dependence refers to the impact of the path on the outcome of the process. The steps of the path include, e.g. forming the problem solving team, the framing and structuring of the problem, the choice of model, the order in which the different parts of the model are specified and solved, and the way in which data or preferences are collected. We identify and discuss seven possibly interacting origins or drivers of path dependence: systemic origins, learning, procedure, behavior, motivation, uncertainty, and external environment. We provide several ideas on how to cope with path dependence. The concept of a path draws attention to the interplay of behavioral phenomena and the sequential nature of modelling processes. This helps understand the overall effect of the behavioral phenomena. A path checklist is developed to help practitioners detect forks and reflect on the path of the modelling project. The risk of path dependence can emerge in different kinds of modeling projects ranging from simulation and decision analysis to statistics.

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