Dr Sheetal Silal will present the Department of Statistical Science seminar with a talk entitled, "Findings from an investment case for Malaria elimination in South Africa".

Sheetal Silal is a senior lecturer in the Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Cape Town.  She is also an Honorary Visiting Research Fellow in Tropical Disease Modelling, Nuffield Dept of Medicine, University of Oxford, UK.

Abstract: Having made substantial progress in controlling malaria and reducing deaths from the disease since 2000, South Africa is attempting to achieve malaria elimination by 2020. With heterogeneous incidence across provinces and a high proportion of imported cases, districts within provinces are faced with their own unique challenges and conditions, and solutions need to be adapted as necessary. To support elimination in South Africa, an investment case for elimination in South Africa is being developed for the Ministry of Health and key partners. The investment case is based on the outputs of a mathematical model that projects rates of decline to elimination until 2020 and the associated costs and benefits. The model includes several features such as details on the environmental conditions and biology of malaria transmission, infection and disease in the geographical region under study. The biological mechanisms are layered over a population distribution and behaviour sub-model that would reflect the way individuals live and move as well as the key features of their treatment-seeking behaviour. Developed alongside available health system data, the model is calibrated to mimic trends and patterns observed in the data. Proposed interventions are costed to inform the development of an investment case to support malaria financing and budgeting and determine a cost-effective path to achieving malaria elimination. The findings from this investment case are be used by the national and provincial malaria elimination programs and external partners to support malaria program budgeting and strategic planning to ensure sufficient financial resources and political commitment are maintained to reach elimination in South Africa.