Professor Tony O'Hagan,  from the University of Sheffield will present the Department of Statistical Sciences seminar with a talk entitled, "Expert Knowledge Elicitation". 

Abstract: Elicitation is the process of expressing the knowledge of one or more experts as a probability distribution for some uncertain quantity.  It has many uses.  For instance, a pharmaceutical company considering running a large Phase 3 trial for some new drug needs to think carefully about the likely outcomes.  And a key question is, just how good is this drug?  The company will have results from small-scale exploratory studies, conducted in different conditions, with different patient populations, and often different formulations of the drug than the proposed Phase 3 trial.  Making an informed assessment of the likely performance of the drug in Phase 3 requires expert judgement - elicitation.

This talk will give an overview of the principal issues in elicitation, followed by an introduction to the Sheffield Elicitation Framework, one of the leading protocols for expert knowledge elicitation.

Join Zoom Meeting

Meeting ID: 974 0752 7848

Passcode: 3d417p