Professor Tony O'Hagan, from the University of Sheffield will present the Department of Statistical Sciences seminar with a talk entitled, "Expert Knowledge Elicitation".
Abstract: Elicitation is the process of expressing the knowledge of one or more experts as a probability distribution for some uncertain quantity. It has many uses. For instance, a pharmaceutical company considering running a large Phase 3 trial for some new drug needs to think carefully about the likely outcomes. And a key question is, just how good is this drug? The company will have results from small-scale exploratory studies, conducted in different conditions, with different patient populations, and often different formulations of the drug than the proposed Phase 3 trial. Making an informed assessment of the likely performance of the drug in Phase 3 requires expert judgement - elicitation.
This talk will give an overview of the principal issues in elicitation, followed by an introduction to the Sheffield Elicitation Framework, one of the leading protocols for expert knowledge elicitation.
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Meeting ID: 974 0752 7848