Professor Tony O'Hagan,  from the University of Sheffield will present the Department of Statistical Sciences seminar with a talk entitled, "Expert Knowledge Elicitation". 

Abstract: Elicitation is the process of expressing the knowledge of one or more experts as a probability distribution for some uncertain quantity.  It has many uses.  For instance, a pharmaceutical company considering running a large Phase 3 trial for some new drug needs to think carefully about the likely outcomes.  And a key question is, just how good is this drug?  The company will have results from small-scale exploratory studies, conducted in different conditions, with different patient populations, and often different formulations of the drug than the proposed Phase 3 trial.  Making an informed assessment of the likely performance of the drug in Phase 3 requires expert judgement - elicitation.

This talk will give an overview of the principal issues in elicitation, followed by an introduction to the Sheffield Elicitation Framework, one of the leading protocols for expert knowledge elicitation.

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