General
General 1: Announcement: 1pp.
General 2: Schedule: 1pp.
General 3: Document list: 7pp. (FINAL)
General 4: 2015 Panel Report: 24pp. (MARAM/IWS/DEC15/General/8)
General 5: Key Questions for the Panel to address: 2pp.
General 6: Presentation of Panel Report: 25pp.
General 7: Final Panel Report: 17pp.
General 8a: Lyrics of the Workshop song: 2pp.
General 8b: Link to the video recording of the Workshop song.
References in Panel Report
Ref 1: Boresma, P.D. and G.A. Rebstock. 2009. Foraging distance affects reproductive success in Magellanic penguins. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 375: 263-275.
Ref 2: Hennicke, J.C. and B.M. Culik. 2005. Foraging performance and reproductive success of Humboldt penguins in relation to prey availability. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 296: 173-181.
Ref 3: Horswill, C., Matthiopoulos, J., Green, J.A., Meredith, M.P., Forcada, J., Peat, H., Preston, M., Tranthan, P.N. and N.T. Ratcliffee. 2014. Survival in macaroni penguins and the relative importance of different drivers: individual traits, predation pressure and environmental variability. Journal of Animal Ecology, 83: 1057-1067.
Ref 4: McClung, M.R., Seddon, P.J., Massaro, M. and A.N. Setiawan. 2004. Nature-based tourism impacts on yellow-eyed penguins Megadyptes antipodes: does unregulated visitor access affect fledging weight and juvenile survival? Biological Conservation, 119: 279-285.
Ref 5: Parada, C., Mullon, C., Roy, C., Fréon, P., Hutchings, L. and C.D. van der Lingen. 2008. Does vertical migratory behaviour retain fish larvae onshore in upwelling ecosystems? A modelling study of anchovy in the southern Benguela. African Journal of Marine Science, 30(3): 437-452.
Ref 6: Rademeyer, R.A. 2013. An initial attempt at a spatially structured stock assessment for the South African hake resource including explicit movement. MARAM/IWS/DEC13/Hake/P9:
Ref 7: Rademeyer, R.A. 2014. An initial attempt at a spatially structured stock assessment for the South African hake resource including movement based on a gravity model. MARAM/IWS/DEC14/Hake/P5:
Ref 8: Robinson, W., Butterworth, D.S. and Plagányi, É.E. 2015. Quantifying the projected impact of the South African sardine fishery on the Robben Island penguin colony. ICES Journal of Marine Science , 72(6): 1822-1833.
Hake
Background documents
BG1: Butterworth, D.S. 2016. Overview of Hake documents: 2pp.
BG2: Ross-Gillespie, A. 2016. Response to the review panel report for the 2015 International Fisheries Stock Assessment Workshop: Hake: 2pp.
Hake Assessment
Primary papers
P1: Rademeyer, R. and Butterworth, D.S. 2016. Reference Set results and projections under the current OMP for the South African hake resource: 26pp.
P2: Rademeyer, R. and Butterworth, D.S. 2016. Further projections under the Reference Set for the South African hake resource: 8pp.
Background documents
BG1: Rademeyer, R. and Butterworth, D.S. 2014. Final CMP Projections for the South African hake resource: 18pp.
Working Papers
WP1: Rademeyer, R. 2016. Hake - Working Paper 1: 2pp.
WP2: Rademeyer, R. 2016. Hake - Working Paper 2: 2pp.
WP3: Rademeyer, R. 2016. Hake - Working Paper 3: 1pp.
Hake Modelling Predation
Primary papers
P1: OLRAC SPS. 2016. Method used to include cannibalism and inter-species predation in the species, sex, age and size disaggregated hake stock assessment model: 12pp.
P2: Ross-Gillespie, A. and Butterworth, D.S. 2016. Hake cannibalism and inter-species predation model: A summary of the PhD thesis and the development of the model since IWS 2015: 26pp.
P3: Fourie, A., Ross-Gillespie, A., Bergh, M. and Butterworth, D.S. 2016. A comparison between the hake cannibalism and inter-species predation models in Bergh et al. (2016) and Ross-Gillespie (2016): 18pp.
P4: Ross-Gillespie, A. and Butterworth, D.S. 2016. The hake predation model: future developments and research: 2pp.
P5: OLRAC SPS. 2016. The Bergh et al. (2016) hake cannibalism and inter-species predation model with the predator/prey preference, the daily ration of hake predators and the diet of the predators from the Ross-Gillespie (2016) model: 8pp.
Background documents
BG1: Ross-Gillespie, A. 2016. Modelling cannibalism and inter-species predation for Cape hake species Merluccius capensis and M. paradoxus. PhD Thesis: 195pp.
Working Papers
WP1: OLRAC SPS. 2016. Cannibalism methods simplified: 4pp.
WP2: Ross-Gillespie, A. 2016. Implications of how the competition term is implemented in MARAM/IWS/DEC16/Hake Pred/P2: 2pp.
Hake GeoPop:
Primary papers
P1: Jansen, T., Kristensen, K., Kainge, P., Durholtz, D., Strømme, T., Thygesen, U.H., Wilhelm, M.R., Kathena, J., Fairweather, T.P., Paulus, S. and Degel, H. 2016. Migration, distribution and population (stock) structure of shallow-water hake (Merluccius capensis) in the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem inferred using a geostatistical population model. Fisheries Research , 179: 156-167.
P2: Jansen, T. and Thygesen, U. 2016. Geostatistical modelling of the spatial life history of post-larval deep-water hake (Merluccius paradoxus) in the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem: 34pp.
Slides and Presentations
1: Jansen, T. et al. 2016. Inferring migration and population structure from Geo-statistical population modelling of M. capensis and M. paradoxus: 8pp.
Sardine
Primary papers
P1: de Moor, C.L., Butterworth, D.S. and van der Lingen, C.D. 2016. The Quantitative Use of Parasite Data in Multi-Stock Modelling of South African Sardine (Sardinops sagax): 50pp.
P2: de Moor C.L. and Butterworth D.S. 2016. Assessment of the South African sardine resource using data from 1984-2015: Results at the joint posterior mode for the two mixing-stock hypothesis: 44pp.
P3: Coetzee J.C. 2016. Estimation of the effective proportion of sardine biomass contributing to putative western stock recruitment by including the proportion of eggs transported to the West Coast nursery area from South Coast spawning areas: 10pp.
P4: de Moor C.L. 2016. An alternative two mixing stock hypothesis for South African sardine: 6pp.
P5: de Moor C.L. 2016. The two mixing stock hypothesis for South African sardine without an assumed stock-recruit relationship: 8pp.
P6: Butterworth D.S. 2016. A Draft Framework for Assigning Probabilities to Alternative Assumptions concerning the Contribution of Sardine Spawning Biomass on the South Coast to Recruitment on the West Coast: 12pp.
P7: Butterworth, D.S., van der Lingen, C.D., Coetzee, J. and de Moor, C. 2016. The present agreed hypothesis for South African sardine stock structure: 4pp.
P8: van der Lingen, C.D., Coetzee, J.C. and McGrath, A. 2016. Data for informing the choice of a prior for the contribution of South Coast spawner biomass to West Coast recruitment: 6pp.
P9: Butterworth D.S. 2016. An assignment of probabilities to alternative assumptions concerning the contribution of sardine spawner biomass on the South Coast to recruitment on the West Coast: 10pp.
P10: OLRAC SPS. 2016. A statistical basis for estimating the proportion of South Coast spawning biomass that contributes to West Coast recruitment and of West Coast spawning biomass that contributes to South Coast recruitment: 6pp.
P11: de Moor, C.L. 2016. An alternative method to estimate the contribution of south coast spawning to west coast sardine recruitment: 6pp.
P12: de Moor, C.L., Butterworth, D.S. and Coetzee, J.C. 2016. Alternative hypotheses of west to south movement considered for South African sardine: 8pp.
P13: Vrancken, C. and Butterworth, D.S. 2016. Some insights into sustainable yield rates: 10pp.
P14: de Moor, C.L. 2016. Draft simulation testing framework to be used during the development of OMP-17: 26pp.
P15: de Moor, C.L. 2016. Initial simulation projection results assuming a no-catch scenario: 6pp.
P16: OLRAC SPS. 2016. Comments on a recent stock hypothesis about the spatial structure of the sardine stock: 2pp.
Background documents
BG1: de Moor C.L. and Butterworth D.S. 2016. Overview of Sardine Documents: 4pp.
BG2: de Moor C.L. and Butterworth D.S. 2016. Response to the review panel report for the 2015 International Fisheries Stock Assessment Workshop: Sardine: 6pp.
BG3: de Moor C.L. and Butterworth D.S. 2015. Assessing the South African sardine resource: two stocks rather than one?: 12pp.
BG4: de Moor C.L., Coetzee J., van der Westhuizen J.J. and van der Lingen C. 2016. A record of the generation of data used in the 2016 sardine and anchovy assessments: 24pp.
BG5: van der Lingen C.D. 2016. A description of parasite data (2010-2015): 6pp.
BG6: de Moor C.L. and Butterworth D.S. 2016. Assessment of the South African sardine resource using data from 1984-2015: Results at the joint posterior mode for the single stock hypothesis: 24pp.
BG7: de Moor C.L. 2016. Assessment of the South African anchovy resource using data from 1984-2015: results at the posterior mode: 42pp.
BG8: de Moor C.L. 2016. Excluding survey estimates of recruitment on the South Coast from the two mixing stock hypothesis for South African sardine: 8pp.
BG9: de Moor C.L. 2016. Testing robustness of the two mixing stock hypothesis for South African sardine to parasite prevalence data between 20 and 22 degrees: 10pp.
BG10: de Moor C.L. and Butterworth D.S. 2016. OMP-14: 28pp.
BG11: SADSTIA. 2016. Comments on the socio-economic implications of spatial management and the development of OMP-17 in the Small Pelagics fishery: 6pp.
Slides and Presentations
1: van der Lingen, C. 2016. The biological basis for hypothesizing multiple stocks in South African sardine Sardinops sagax (cont...): 28pp.
2: de Moor, C. 2016. Introduction to South African sardine: Assessment and Management: 31pp.
3: SAPFIA. 2016. Socio-economic implications of spatial managementand the development of OMP-17 in the Small Pelagic fishery: 8pp.
4: Teske, P., van der Lingen, C., Golla, T., Sandoval-Castillo, J. and Beheregaray, L. 2016. A genomic appraisal of the stock structure of South African sardines: 10pp.
Working Papers
WP1: van der Lingen, C., McGrath, A. and Coetzee, J. 2016. Sources of uncertainty in IBM modelling of sardine off South Africa: 8pp.
Penguins
Background documents
BG1: Butterworth, D.S. 2016. Overview of Penguins Documents: 4pp.
BG2: Butterworth, D.S. and Bergh, M. 2016. Response to the review panel report for the 2015 International Fisheries Stock Assessment Workshop: Penguins: 8pp.
Penguins Island Closure
Primary papers
P1a: Ross-Gillespie, A. and Butterworth, D.S. 2016. Penguin power analyses using the approach recommended by the international panel: methods and the complete set of results: 30pp.
P1b: addendum to P1a: 8pp.
P2: Sherley, R.B. 2016. A Bayesian approach to understand the effect sizes, uncertainty and demographic impact associated with purse-seine fishing closures around African penguin colonies: 28pp. (see MARAM/IWS/DEC16/General/3)
P3: Butterworth, D.S. 2016. On the use of aggregated vs individual data in assessment models: 6pp.
P4: Sherley, R.B. 2016. Additional analysis suggested in response to differences in variance estimates between Sherley (2016) and Ross-Gillespie & Butterworth (2016): 4pp.
P5: Morris, T. and Hagen, C. 2016. Multifaceted approach to research and conservation of the African Penguin in South Africa: 6pp.
P6: Cochrane, K. 2016. Chair’s Introduction to documents from the technical team on the penguin island closure experiment: 4pp.
Background documents
BG1: Penguin Island Closure Task Team. 2015. Consolidated analyses produced in implementation of the approaches described in document MARAM/IWS/DEC15/PengD/P1: 40pp.
Working Papers
WP1: Ross-Gillespie, A. and Butterworth, D.S. 2016. Penguin power analysis run with the SE values from MARAM/IWS/DEC16/Peng Clos/P4: 1pp.
WP2: Ross-Gillespie, A. and Butterworth, D.S. 2016. Details of the jack-knife approach implemented for the results presented in Table 1 of MARAM/IWS/DEC16/Peng Clos/P3: 2pp.
WP3: Sherley, R. 2016. Additional model runs requested by the panel after MARAM/IWS/DEC16/Peng Clos/P4: 1pp.
WP4: Sherley, R. 2016. Updated diagnostics plots for JAGS models on chick condition: 3pp.
Penguins Pressure Model
Primary papers
P1: Butterworth D.S. 2016. Questions arising from Weller et al. articles: 10pp.
P2: Weller, F., Sherley, R.B., Altwegg, R., Jarre, A. and Shannon, L.J. 2016. Additional perspectives for the Stock Assessment Review Panel on penguin population modelling for decision making: 6pp.
Background documents
BG1: Weller, F., Cecchini, L., Shannon, L., Sherley, R.B., Crawford, R.J.M., Altwegg, R., Scott, L., Stewart, T. and Jarre, A. 2014. A system dynamics approach to modelling multiple drivers of the African penguin population on Robben Island, South Africa. Ecological Modelling , 277: 38-56.
BG2: Butterworth, D.S., Plagányi, É.E., Robinson, W.M.L., Moosa, N. and de Moor, C.L. 2015. Penguin modelling approach queried. Ecological Modelling , 316: 78-80.
BG3: Weller, F., Sherley, R.B., Shannon, L.J., Jarre, A., Stewart, T., Scott, L., Altwegg, R., Cecchini, L., Crawford, R.J.M., Geldenhuys, D., Ludynia, K. and Waller, L.J. 2016. Penguins’ perilous conservation status calls for complementary approach based on sound ecological principles: reply to Butterworth et al. (2015). Ecological Modelling , 337: 1-3.
BG4a: Weller, F., Sherley, R.B., Waller, L.J., Ludynia, K., Geldenhuys, D., Shannon, L.J. and Jarre, A. 2016. System dynamics modelling of the Endangered African penguin populations on Dyer and Robben islands, South Africa. Ecological Modelling , 327: 44-56.
BG4b: TRACE document - supplement to BG4a: 70pp.
BG5: Robinson, W., Butterworth, D.S. and Plagányi, É.E. 2015. Quantifying the projected impact of the South African sardine fishery on the Robben Island penguin colony. ICES Journal of Marine Science , 72(6): 1822-1833.
BG6: Sherley, R.B., Abadi, F., Ludynia, K., Barham, B.J., Clark, A.E. and Altwegg, R. 2014. Age-specific survival and movement among major African Penguin Spheniscus demersus colonies. International Journal of Avian Science , 156 (4): 716 – 728.
BG7: Sherley, R.B., Winker, H., Altwegg, R., van der Lingen, C.D., Votier, S.C. and Crawford, R.J.M. 2015. Bottom-up effects of a no-take zone on endangered penguin demographics. Biology Letters , 11(7): 20150237.
BG8: Robinson, W.M.L. 2013. Modelling the impact of the South African small pelagic fishery on African penguin dynamics. PhD thesis: xiv + 207 pp.
Fisheries Certification Discussion
1:Notice of Fisheries Certification Discussion: 1pp.
2: Butterworth, D.S. 2016. Ecolabelling Background: 11pp.
3: Lallemand, P. 2016. Socio-Economic Implications of MSC Certification for the South African Hake Trawl Fishery: 24pp.
4: Duncan, J. 2016. The MSC and Small-Scale Fisheries: 6pp.
5: Marriott, M. 2016. MSC perspectives: 8pp.
6: Link to Fisheries Certification discussion video.