Infectious disease modelling for public health decision-making
The current multi-country Monkeypox outbreak is a stark reminder of how quickly infectious diseases can re-emerge and spread, and having robust and adaptable models to guide policy decisions is invaluable. In light of this, MASHA hosts an annual training on the mathematical modelling of infectious diseases (MMID). This year, 13 individuals attended the short course from the 12th to 22nd August 2024 at UCT.
MMID provides essential foundational knowledge and skills for preparing participants to interrogate mathematical models critically. One of the compelling aspects of the course is its focus on the economic costs associated with disease control, a perspective that is often overlooked. This serves to challenge participants’ outlook on the implementation of control interventions in affected areas. Understanding the financial implications of disease spread and intervention strategies allows participants to make more informed recommendations that balance public health benefits with economic constraints.
One of the critical lessons participants take away is the importance of accurate data. Without reliable data, even the most sophisticated models can lead to misguided decisions. The course emphasises the practical challenges of data collection and analysis, teaching participants how to work with data sets and data fitting techniques to produce results that reflect observations. Participants of the course were able to contextualise their learning by examining data and applying theoretical models to understand the impact of different control interventions and the dynamics of various diseases such as COVID-19, malaria and ebola.
To provide a complementary balance between theory and practice, the participants coded alongside the instructor during live demonstrations and gained hands-on experience in R. The final sessions of the course were dedicated to the visualisation of model results by creating clear, compelling graphics. In addition, participants learnt how to incorporate this into an interactive R Shiny web-application that stakeholders can use to explore a range of scenario outcomes. This approach demonstrates the direct application of data-driven modelling in addressing pressing public health issues and sensitising stakeholders to the value of these models in the decision-making process.
Testament to the broad scope of modelling and epidemiology at large, MMID 2024 participants were from the Kamuzu University of Health Sciences in Malawi, the University Hospital of Bern in Switzerland, the Instituto Nacional de Saúde (National Institute of Health) in Mozambique, the South African Medical Research Council, Stellenbosch University, the Health Economics and Epidemiology Research Office (HE²RO) at the University of the Witwatersrand, the department of Computer Science at UCT and the division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics in UCT.
The exercises reinforced learning by applying theoretical knowledge to real-world scenarios, creating a well-rounded educational experience, leaving the participants with an appreciation of the implications of modelling and the complexities of public health. Follow @MASHA_UCT for updates on MMID 2025, as MASHA aims to build a more informed and proactive global health community.