Journal Articles

JOURNAL PUBLICATIONS

* Preprints at the bottom of the page.

2026

• Aguas R, Franco C, Gao B, Silal SP, Norman J, Chen S, et al. (2026). Informing optimal testing and isolation strategies across different stages of the diagnostic development pipeline using mathematical models: SARS-CoV-2 in the UK as a case study. BMJ Public Health. 2026;4:e002993. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjph-2025-002993
• Alohoutade, S. V., Hounsell, R., Dandonougbo, C., Aikpon, R., Degila, J., & Silal, S. (2026). Estimating the impact of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine in Benin: A mathematical modelling study. PLOS Global Public Health, 6(5), e0005543. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0005543
• Charani E, Makamu T, Silal S et al. (2026). Rethinking country classifications towards a more equitable global health future. The Lancet, 2026; 407, 1406-1408
• Adegoke, T.M., Nji, A.M., Silal, S.P. et al. (2026). A systematic review of epidemiological models for malaria transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa. Malar J 25, 191. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-026-05870-8

• Sim, S. Y., Silal, S., Hutubessy, R. C. W., Bar-Zeev, N., O'Brien, K. L., & Lambach, P. (2026). Advancing the use of vaccine impact modeling for immunization decisions in low- and middle-income countries. Vaccine, 75, 128239. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2026.128239

• Akindeh, M.N., Adegoke, T., Silal, S.P., Innocent, A., Andrillene, L.W., Madeleine, P.F., Sylvanie, M.T., Tah, C.F., Antinio-Nkondjio, C., Bigoga, J.D. and Leke, R.F. (2026). Towards Reliable Malaria Forecasting: A Noise-Resilient Wavelet-STL Hybrid Framework for Cameroon. Epidemiology Biostatistics, and Public Health, 21 (1). https://doi.org/10.54103/2282-0930/30118

• Madito, G.T., Brooke, B.D. & Silal, S.P (2026). Comparing three approaches to modelling the effects of temperature and rainfall on malaria incidence in different climatic regions. BMC Public Health. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-026-26280-0

2025

• Chiziba C, Chiwaula J, Hamainza B, Silal S (2025) Advancing malaria reactive case detection in a Zambia-like setting: A modeling study. PLOS Glob Public Health 5(2): e0004288. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0004288

• Lambach, P., Silal, S., Sbarra, A.N., Koh, M., Aggarwal, R., Farooqui, H.H., Flasche, S., Hogan, A.B., Kim, S.Y., Leung, K., Moss, W.J., Portnoy, A,, Sheel, M., Wang, X.Y., (2025). Report from the World Health Organization's Immunization and Vaccines-related Implementation Research Advisory Committee (IVIR-AC) meeting, virtual gathering, 1-5 September 2025. Vaccine. 2025 Dec 5;68:127903. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2025.127903

• Lambach, P., Silal, S., Sbarra, A.N., Koh, M., Aggarwal, R., Farooqui, H.H., Flasche, S., Hogan, A.B., Kim, S.Y., Leung, K. and Moss, W.J., (2025). Report from the World Health Organization’s immunization and vaccines-related implementation research advisory committee (IVIR-AC) meeting, virtual gathering, 17–21 February 2025. Vaccine. 2025 Aug 13;61(12738), p.4. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2025.127384

• Lambach, P., Silal, S., Sbarra, A.N., Koh, M., Aggarwal, R., Farooqui, H.H., Flasche, S., Hogan, A.B., Kim, S.Y., Leung, K. and Moss, W.J., (2025). Report from the World Health Organization's immunization and vaccines-related implementation research advisory committee (IVIR-AC) meeting, virtual gathering, 10–13 September 2024. Vaccine, 43, p.126519. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2024.126519

2024

• Lambach, P., Silal, S., Sbarra, A.N. Crowcroft, N.S., Frey, K., Ferrari, M., Vynnycky, E., Metcalf, C.J.E., Winter, A.K., Zimmerman, L., Koh, M., Sheel, M., Kim, S.Y., Munywoki, P.K., Portnoy, A., Aggarwal, R., Farooqui, H.H., Flasche, S., Hogan, A.B., Leung, K., Moss, W.J., Wang, X.Y., (2024). Report from the World Health Organization's immunization and vaccines-related implementation research advisory committee (IVIR-AC) ad hoc meeting, 28 June - 1 July 2024. Vaccine. 2024 Sep 13;42(26):126307. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2024.126307

• Lambach, P., Silal, S., Sbarra, A.N., Koh, M., Aggarwal, R., Farooqui, H.H., Flasche, S., Hogan, A.B., Kim, S.Y., Leung, K. and Moss, W.J., (2024). Report from the World Health Organization’s immunization and vaccines-related implementation research advisory committee (IVIR-AC) meeting, virtual gathering, 26 February–1 March 2024. Vaccine, 42(15), pp.3379-3383. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2024.126307

• Edoka, I., Silal, S., Jamieson, L., & Meyer-Rath, G. (2024). A cost-effectiveness analysis of South Africa’s COVID-19 vaccination programme. Vaccine. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2024.05.036

• Shattock, A. J., Johnson, H. C., Sim, S. Y., Carter, A., Lambach, P., Hutubessy, R. C. W., Thompson, K. M., Badizadegan, K., Lambert, B., Ferrari, M. J., Jit, M., Fu, H., Silal, S. P., Hounsell, R. A., White, R. G., Mosser, J. F., Gaythorpe, K. A. M., Trotter, C. L., Lindstrand, A., Bar-Zeev, N. (2024). Contribution of vaccination to improved survival and health: modelling 50 years of the Expanded Programme on Immunization. The Lancet. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00850-X

• White, R.G.; Menzies, N.A.; Portnoy, A.; Clark, R.A.; Toscano, C.M.; Weller, C.; Tufet Bayona, M.; Silal, S.P.; Karron, R.A.; Lee, J.-S.; et al. The Full Value of Vaccine Assessments Concept—Current Opportunities and Recommendations. Vaccines 2024, 12, 435. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines12040435

• Thumbi, S. M., Jacquie Oliwa, and Sheetal P. Silal. Strengthening health policy modelling in Africa. The Lancet Global Health 12.4 (2024): e555-e556. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(24)00027-5

• Philipp Lambach, Walt Orenstein, Sheetal Silal, Alyssa N. Sbarra, Mitsuki Koh, Rakesh Aggarwal, Habib Hasan Farooqui, Stefan Flasche, Alexandra Hogan, Sun-Young Kim, Julie Leask, Paula M. Luz, Dafrossa C. Lyimo, William J. Moss, Virginia E. Pitzer, Xian-Yi Wang, Joseph Wu (2024). Report from the World Health Organization’s immunization and vaccines related implementation research advisory committee (IVIR-AC) meeting, Geneva, 11–13 September 2023. Vaccine, 2024, ISSN 0264-410X. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2024.02.014

• Patterson J, Cleary S, Norman JM, Van Zyl H, Awine T, Mayet S, Kagina B, Muloiwa R, Hussey G, Silal SP (2024). Modelling the Cost-Effectiveness of Hepatitis A in South Africa. Vaccines. 2024; 12(2):116. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines12020116

2023

• Meyer-Rath G, Hounsell RA, Pulliam JR, Jamieson L, Nichols BE, Moultrie H & Silal, SP. (2023) The role of modelling and analytics in South African COVID-19 planning and budgeting. PLOS Glob Public Health 3(7): e0001063. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001063
• Jamieson L, Van Schalkwyk C, Nichols BE, Meyer-Rath G, Silal S, Pulliam J, et al. (2023) Differential in-hospital mortality and intensive care treatment over time: Informing hospital pathways for modelling COVID-19 in South Africa. PLOS Glob Public Health 3(5): e0001073. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001073
• Aparna Kollipara, Devanand Moonasar, Ryleen Balawanth, Sheetal P. Silal, Anthony Yuen, Katie Fox, Joseph Njau, Yogan G. Pillay & Mark Blecher (2023) Mobilizing resources with an investment case to mitigate cross-border malaria transmission and achieve malaria elimination in South Africa. Global Health Action, 16:1. https://doi.org/10.1080/16549716.2023.2205700
• Silal SP, Pulliam JRC, Meyer-Rath G, Jamieson L, Nichols BE, Norman J, et al. (2023) The National COVID-19 Epi Model (NCEM): Estimating cases, admissions and deaths for the first wave of COVID-19 in South Africa. PLOS Glob Public Health 3(4): e0001070. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001070

2022

• Awine T, Silal SP (2022) Assessing the effectiveness of malaria interventions at the regional level in Ghana using a mathematical modelling application. PLOS Glob Public Health 2(12): e0000474. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0000474
• Silal, S. (2022). Seasonal targeting of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine: a complementary tool but sustained funding is required. The Lancet Global Health, Volume 10, Issue 12, e1693 - e1694 [invited commentary]. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00477-6
• Silal, S., Groome, M., Govender, N., Pulliam, J., Ramadan, O., Puren, A., Jassat, W., Leonard, E., Moultrie, H., Meyer-Rath, K., Ramkrishna, W., Langa, T., Furumele, T., Moonasar, D., Cohen, C., & Walaza, S. (2022). Lever aging epidemiology as a decision support tool during the COVID-19 epidemic in South Africa. South African Medical Journal, 112(5b), 361. https://doi.org/10.7196/SAMJ.2022.v112i5b.16061
• Modisenyane, M., Madikezela, L., Mngemane, S., Ramadan, O., Matlalal, S., McCarthy, K., Govender, N., Nemungadi, T., & Silal, S. (2022). COVID-19 response in South African communities: Screening, testing, tracing and movement modelling. South African Medical Journal, 112(5b), 366. https://doi.org/10.7196/SAMJ.2022.v112i5b.16072
• Patterson, J., Cleary, S., Silal, S.P. et al. A retrospective study assessing the clinical outcomes and costs of acute hepatitis A in Cape Town, South Africa. BMC Infect Dis 22, 45. (2022). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-021-06993-w

2021

• Silal SP, Pulliam J, Jamieson L, Nichols B, Moultrie H, Meyer-Rath M, (2021). The role of modelling in planning and budgeting for South Africa's COVID-19 response. In: Govender K, George G, Padarath A, Moeti T, editors. South African Health Review 2021. Durban: Health Systems Trust; 2021. https://www.hst.org.za/publications/South%20African%20Health%20Reviews/Chapter2_SAHR21_04022022_OD.pdf
• Blecher M, Davén J, Meyer-Rath G, Silal SP, Makrelov K & Van Niekerk M, (2021). The South African government’s COVID-19 response: protecting lives and livelihoods. In: Govender K, George G, Padarath A, Moeti T, editors. South African Health Review 2021. Durban: Health Systems Trust; 2021. https://www.hst.org.za/publications/South%20African%20Health%20Reviews/Chapter1_SAHR21_04022022_OD.pdf

• Pollett S, Johansson MA, Reich NG, Brett-Major D, Del Valle SY, Venkatramanan S, Lowe R, Porco T, Berry IM, Deshpande A, Kraemer MU, Blazes DL, Pan-ngum W, Vespigiani A, Mate SE, Silal SP, Kandula S, et al. (2021). Recommended reporting items for epidemic forecasting and prediction research: The EPIFORGE 2020 guidelines. PLoS medicine. 2021 Oct 19;18(10):e1003793. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1003793 

• Njau, J., Silal, S.P., Kollipara, A., Fox, K., Balawanth, R., Yuen, A., White, L.J., Moya, M., Pillay, Y., Moonasar, D., (2021). Investment case for malaria elimination in South Africa: a financing model for resource mobilization to accelerate regional malaria elimination. Malar J 20, 344 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-021-03875-z (2021)

• Morton, A., Bish, E., Megiddo, I., Zhuang, W., Aringhieri, R., Brailsford, S., Deo, S., Geng, N., Higle, J., Hutton, D., Janssen, M., Kaplan, EH., Li, J., D Oliveira, M., Prinja, S., Rauner, M., Silal, SP., & Song, J. 2021. Introduction to the special issue: Management Science in the Fight Against Covid-19. Health Care Management Science. 2021 Jun;24(2):251-252. http://doi.org/10.1007/s10729-021-09569-x
• Jo, Y., Jamieson, L., Edoka, I., Long, L., Silal, SP., Pulliam, JRC., Moultrie, H., Sanne, I., Meyer-Rath, G., Nichols, BE., (2021). Cost-effectiveness of remdesivir and dexamethasone for COVID-19 treatment in South Africa. Open Forum Infectious Diseases. Volume 8. Issue 3. https://doi.org/10.1093/ofid/ofab040.

2020

• Awine, T., Silal, S.P. (2020). Accounting for regional transmission variability and the impact of malaria control interventions in Ghana: a population level mathematical modelling approach. Malar J 19, 423. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-020-03496-y (2020)
• Silal, S. P. (2020). Operational research: a multidisciplinary approach for the management of infectious disease in a global context. European Journal of Operational Research. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2020.07.037
• Kuodi P., Patterson J., Silal SP., Hussey GD & Kagina B. (2020) Characterization of the environmental presence of hepatitis A virus in Low and Middle-Income Countries: A systematic review and meta-analysis. BMJ Open. 10 (9), e036407. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2019-036407
• Nichols, B. E., Jamieson, L., Zhang, S., Rao, G. A., Silal, S., Pulliam, J., Sanne, I., & Meyer-Rath, G. (2020). The role of remdesivir in South Africa: preventing COVID-19 deaths through increasing ICU capacity. PreClinical Infectious Diseases, Volume 72, Issue 9, 1 May 2021, Pages 1642-1644. https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa937
• Patterson, J., Hussey, H. S., Silal, S., Goddard, L., Setshedi, M., Spearman, W., ... & Muloiwa, R. (2020). Systematic review of the global epidemiology of viral-induced acute liver failure. BMJ open, 10(7), e037473. http://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2020-037473
• Shretta, R., Silal, S.P., Malm, K., Mohammed, W., Narh, J., Piccinini, D., Bertram, K., Rockwood, J. and Lynch, M., (2020). Estimating the risk of declining funding for malaria in Ghana: the case for continued investment in the malaria response. Malaria Journal, 19(1), pp.1-15. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-020-03267-9

2019

• Patterson, J., Hussey, H.S., Abdullahi, L.H., Silal, S., Goddard, L., Setshedi, M., Spearman, W., Hussey, G.D., Kagina, B. and Muloiwa, R., (2019). The global epidemiology of viral-induced acute liver failure: a systematic review protocol. BMJ open, 9(8), p.e029819. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2019-029819
• Celhay, O.J., Silal, S.P., Maude, R.J., Mercado, C.E.G., Shretta, R., White, L.J., (2019). An interactive application for malaria elimination transmission and costing in the Asia-Pacific. Wellcome Open Research 2019, 4:61. https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.14770.2
• Shretta, R., Silal, S.P., Celhay, O.J., Mercado, C.E.G., Kyaw, S.S., Avancena, A., Fox, K., Zelman, B., Baral, R., White, L.J., Maude, R.J., (2019). Malaria elimination transmission and costing in the Asia-Pacific: Developing an investment case. Wellcome Open Res 2019, 4:60. https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.14769.2
• Silal, S.P., Shretta, R., Celhay, O.J., Mercado, C.E.G., Saralamba, S.S., Maude, R.J., White, L.J., (2019). Malaria elimination transmission and costing in the Asia-Pacific: a multi-species dynamic transmission model. Wellcome Open Res, 4:62. https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.14771.2
• Shretta, R., Silal, S., White, L.J., Maude, R.J., (2019). Predicting the cost of malaria elimination in the Asia-Pacific. Wellcome Open Res. 2019 Apr 24;4:73. https://doi.org/10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15166.1

2018

• Awine, T., Malm, K., Peprah, N.Y. and Silal, S.P., (2018). Spatio-temporal heterogeneity of malaria morbidity in Ghana: Analysis of routine health facility data. PloS one, 13(1), p.e0191707. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0191707

2017

• Awine, T., Malm, K., Bart-Plange, C. and Silal, S.P., (2017). Towards malaria control and elimination in Ghana: challenges and decision making tools to guide planning. Global health action, 10(1), p.1381471. https://doi.org/10.1080/16549716.2017.1381471

2016

• Silal, S.P., Little, F., Barnes, K.I. and White, L.J., (2016). Sensitivity to model structure: a comparison of compartmental models in epidemiology. Health Systems, 5(3), pp.178-191. https://doi.org/10.1057/hs.2015.2

2015

• Slater H.C., Ross, A., Ouedrago A.L., Nguon C., Walker P., Ngor P., Silal, S.P., La Barre P., Burton R., Sauerin R.W. Drakely C, Smith TA, Bousema T, Ghani AC., (2015). Assessing the impact of next-generation rapid diagnostic tests on Plasmodium falciparum malaria elimination strategies. Nature, 528(7580). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature16040
• Silal, S.P., Little, F., Barnes, K.I. and White, L.J., (2015). Hitting a moving target: a model for malaria elimination in the presence of population movement. PLoS One, 10(12), p.e0144990. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0144990
• Silal, S.P., Little, F., Barnes, K.I. and White, L.J., (2015). Predicting the impact of border control on malaria transmission: a simulated focal screen and treat campaign. Malaria journal, 14(1), p.268. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-015-0776-2

2014

• Silal, S.P., Little, F., Barnes, K.I. and White, L.J., (2014). Towards malaria elimination in Mpumalanga, South Africa: a population-level mathematical modelling approach. Malaria journal, 13(1), p.297. https://doi.org/10.1186/1475-2875-13-297
• Silal, S.P., Penn-Kekana, L., Bärnighausen, T. and Schneider, H., (2014). Local level inequalities in the use of hospital-based maternal delivery in rural South Africa. Globalization and health, 10(1), p.60. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12992-014-0060-1

2013

• Durbach, I., Scott, L., Nyirenda, J., & Silal, S. (2013). Operational research(ers) in development: Growing a new generation of operational researcher. ORiON: The Journal of ORSSA, 29(1), 87-102.
• Silal, S.P., Barnes, K.I., Kok, G., Mabuza, A. and Little, F., (2013). Exploring the seasonality of reported treated malaria cases in Mpumalanga, South Africa. PloS one, 8(10), p.e76640. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0076640
• Cleary, S., Birch, S., Chimbindi, N., Silal, S. and McIntyre, D., (2013). Investigating the affordability of key health services in South Africa. Social science & medicine, 80, pp.37-46. http://doi.org/10.1016/just.socscimed.2012.11.035

2012

• Moshabela, M., Schneider, H., Silal, S.P. and Cleary, S.M., (2012). Factors associated with patterns of plural healthcare utilization among patients taking antiretroviral therapy in rural and urban South Africa: a cross-sectional study. BMC health services Research, 12(1), p.182. (2012). https://doi.org/10.1186/1472-6963-12-182
• Silal, S.P., Penn-Kekana, L., Harris, B., Birch, S. and McIntyre, D., (2012). Exploring inequalities in access to and use of maternal health services in South Africa. BMC health services research, 12(1), p.120. (2012). https://doi.org/10.1186/1472-6963-12-120

2011

• Cleary, S., Silal, S., Birch, S., Carrara, H., Pillay-van Wyk, V., Rehle, T. and Schneider, H., (2011). Equity in the use of antiretroviral treatment in the public health care system in urban South Africa. Health Policy, 99(3), pp.261-266. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.healthpol.2010.10.016

Preprints

• Pearson, CAB, SP Silal, MWZ Li, J Dushoff, BM Bolker, S Abbott, C van Schalkwyk, NG Davies, RC Barnard, WJ Edmunds, J Bingham, G Meyer-Rath, L Jamieson, A Glass, N Wolter, N Govender, WS Stevens, L Scott, K Mlisana, H Moultrie, & JRC Pulliam, (2021). Bounding the levels of transmissibility and immune evasion of the Omicron variant in South Africa. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.12.19.21268038
• Kounoumi Sara Medekon, Jules Degila, Sheetal Silal, (2025). Exploring pathways to malaria control and elimination in the northern regions (Atacora, Alibori, Borgou, Donga) of Benin Republic: a metapopulation modelling approach. https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.07.09.25331180