MASHA is a member of the South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium - a group of researchers from academic, non-profit, and government institutions across South Africa. The group is coordinated by the National Institute for Communicable Diseases, on behalf of the National Department of Health. The mandate of the group is to provide, assess and validate model projections to be used for planning purposes by the Government of South Africa. Over the course of the pandemic, the MASHA team supported the epidemiological and economic needs of the South African government.

 

PUBLICATIONS

  1. Meyer-Rath G, Hounsell RA, Pulliam JR, Jamieson L, Nichols BE, Moultrie H & Silal, SP. (2023) The role of modelling and analytics in South African COVID-19 planning and budgeting. PLOS Glob Public Health 3(7): e0001063. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001063
  2. Jamieson L, Van Schalkwyk C, Nichols BE, Meyer-Rath G, Silal S, Pulliam J, et al. (2023) Differential in-hospital mortality and intensive care treatment over time: Informing hospital pathways for modelling COVID-19 in South Africa. PLOS Glob Public Health 3(5): e0001073. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001073
  3. Silal SP, Pulliam JRC, Meyer-Rath G, Jamieson L, Nichols BE, Norman J, et al. (2023) The National COVID-19 Epi Model (NCEM): Estimating cases, admissions and deaths for the first wave of COVID-19 in South Africa. PLOS Glob Public Health 3(4): e0001070. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0001070
  4. Silal, S., Groome, M., Govender, N., Pulliam, J., Ramadan, O., Puren, A., Jassat, W., Leonard, E., Moultrie, H., Meyer-Rath, K., Ramkrishna, W., Langa, T., Furumele, T., Moonasar, D., Cohen, C., & Walaza, S. (2022). Lever aging epidemiology as a decision support tool during the COVID-19 epidemic in South Africa. South African Medical Journal, 112(5b), 361. Retrieved from http://www.samj.org.za/index.php/samj/article/view/13602
  5. Modisenyane, M., Madikezela, L., Mngemane, S., Ramadan, O., Matlalal, S., McCarthy, K., Govender, N., Nemungadi, T., & Silal, S. (2022). COVID-19 response in South African communities: Screening, testing, tracing and movement modelling. South African Medical Journal, 112(5b), 366. Retrieved from http://www.samj.org.za/index.php/samj/article/view/13599
  6. Silal SP, Pulliam J, Jamieson L, Nichols B, Moultrie H, Meyer-Rath M. The role of modelling in planning and budgeting for South Africa's COVID-19 response. In: Govender K, George G, Padarath A, Moeti T, editors. South African Health Review 2021. Durban: Health Systems Trust; 2021. URL: https://www.hst.org.za/publications/South%20African%20Health%20Reviews/Chapter2_SAHR21_04022022_OD.pdf
  7. Blecher M, Davén J, Meyer-Rath G, Silal SP, Makrelov K & Van Niekerk M. The South African government’s COVID-19 response: protecting lives and livelihoods. In: Govender K, George G, Padarath A, Moeti T, editors. South African Health Review 2021. Durban: Health Systems Trust; 2021. URL: https://www.hst.org.za/publications/South%20African%20Health%20Reviews/Chapter1_SAHR21_04022022_OD.pdf
  8. Pollett S, Johansson MA, Reich NG, Brett-Major D, Del Valle SY, Venkatramanan S, Lowe R, Porco T, Berry IM, Deshpande A, Kraemer MU, Blazes DL, Pan-ngum W, Vespigiani A, Mate SE, Silal SP, Kandula S, et al. Recommended reporting items for epidemic forecasting and prediction research: The EPIFORGE 2020 guidelines. PLoS medicine. 2021 Oct 19;18(10):e1003793.
  9. Morton, A., Bish, E., Megiddo, I., Zhuang, W., Aringhieri, R., Brailsford, S., Deo, S., Geng, N., Higle, J., Hutton, D., Janssen, M., Kaplan,  EH., Li, J., D Oliveira, M., Prinja, S., Rauner, M., Silal, SP., & Song, J. 2021. Introduction to the special issue: Management Science in the Fight Against Covid-19. Health Care Management Science, pp.1-2.
  10. Jo, Y., Jamieson, L., Edoka, I., Long, L., Silal, SP., Pulliam, JRC., Moultrie, H.,  Sanne, I., Meyer-Rath, G., Nichols, BE. Cost-effectiveness of remdesivir and dexamethasone for COVID-19 treatment in South Africa. (2021). Open Forum Infectious Diseases. Volume 8. Issue 3. https://doi.org/10.1093/ofid/ofab040
  11. Nichols, B. E., Jamieson, L., Zhang, S., Rao, G. A., Silal, S., Pulliam, J., Sanne, I., & Meyer-Rath, G. (2020). The role of remdesivir in South Africa: preventing COVID-19 deaths through increasing ICU capacity. Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America, ciaa937. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa937

 

TECHNICAL REPORTS

  1. MAC on COVID-19, Technical Working Group: Balfour T., Abdool Karim S., Davies M., Gray A., Jordan P., Mokgatle M., Morewane R., Moshabela M., Moultrie H., Nel J., Nyembezi A., Pillay Y., Pulliam J.R.C., Rees H. & Silal S.P. Mitigating COVID-19 In South Africa: Going Forward Position Paper (8 February 2022). National Department of Health. Available at: https://sacoronavirus.b-cdn.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Mitigating-COVID-19-Going-Forward-Position-Paper_8Feb2022_Final2.pdf
  2. South African Ministerial Advisory Committee for COVID-19. Range of Advisories available at https://sacoronavirus.co.za/category/mac-advisories/ 
  3. Silal S.P., Pulliam J.,  Meyer-Rath G., Jamieson Lise., Moultrie H. (2021) COVID-19 modelling update: Considerations for a potential fourth wave (November 2021). National Institute for  Communicable Diseases. Published on 17 November 2021 at: https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/SACMC-Fourth-wave-report-17112021-final.pdf
  4. Silal S.P., Pulliam J.,  Meyer-Rath G., Jamieson Lise., Moultrie H. (2021) COVID-19 modelling update: Considerations for the third wave, including the impact of the delta variant of concern (July 2021). National Institute for  Communicable Diseases. Published on 14 July 2021 at: https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/SACMC-Third-wave-report-inlcuding-Delta-variant.pdf
  5. Silal S.P., Pulliam J.,  Meyer-Rath G., Jamieson Lise., Moultrie H. (2021) COVID-19 modelling update: Considerations for a potential third wave. National Institute for  Communicable Diseases. Published on 29 April 2021 at: https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/SACMC-Third-wave-report-290421.pdf
  6. Silal S.P., Pulliam J.,  Meyer-Rath G., Nichols, B., Jamieson Lise., Moultrie H. (2020) Estimating cases for COVID-19 in South Africa: Assessment of alternate scenarios. National Institute for  Communicable Diseases. Published on 5 September 2020 at: https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/SACovidModellingReport_LongTermProjections_050920_final.pdf
  7. Silal SP, Letchford L, Cassy A, Jasper P, Zaman R & White LJ. (2020) Modelling of COVID-19 Scenarios in Mozambique.
  8. Silal S.P., Pulliam J.,  Meyer-Rath G., Nichols, B., Jamieson Lise., Moultrie H. (2020) Estimating cases for COVID-19 in South Africa: Short Term projections: June 2020. National Institute for  Communicable Diseases. Published on 12 June 2020 at: https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/SACovidModellingReport_ProvincialLongTermProjections_Final.pdf
  9. Silal S.P., Pulliam J.,  Meyer-Rath G., Nichols, B., Jamieson Lise., Moultrie H. (2020) Estimating cases for COVID-19 in South Africa: Long term projections. National Institute for  Communicable Diseases. Published on 19 May 2020 at: https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/SACovidModellingReport_NationalLongTermProjections_Final-1.pdf
  10. Silal S.P., Pulliam J.,  Meyer-Rath G., Nichols, B., Jamieson Lise., Moultrie H. (2020) Estimating cases for COVID-19 in South Africa: Long term Provincial projections. National Institute for  Communicable Diseases. Published on 19 May 2020 at: https://www.nicd.ac.za/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/SACovidModellingReport_ProvincialLongTermProjections_Final.pdf

 

ARTICLES IN POPULAR MEDIA

  1. Groom, M., Silal, S.P. & Pulliam, J. R.C. (18 May 2022) South Africa has entered a new phase of the COVID pandemic: what that means. Available at: https://theconversation.com/south-africa-has-entered-a-new-phase-of-the-covid-pandemic-what-that-means-183255
  2. Silal, S.P., Meyer-Rath, G., Pulliam, J.R.C., & Moultrie, H., (3 September 2020) Uncertainty governs Covid-19 projections, so multidisciplinary research is vital. Available at: https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/opinion/2020-09-03-uncertainty-governs-covid-19-projections-so-multidisciplinary-research-is-vital/
  3. Meyer-Rath, G., Silal, S.P., Pulliam, J.R.C., & Moultrie, H., (24 July 2020) The SA Covid-19 Modelling team | Modelling a pandemic on scarce data and unknowns. Available at: https://www.news24.com/news24/columnists/guestcolumn/the-sa-covid-19-modelling-team-modelling-a-pandemic-on-scarce-data-and-unknowns-20200723
  4. Pulliam, J.R.C., Silal, S.P., Meyer-Rath, G., & Moultrie, H., (22 May 2020) Behind the numbers: Modelling the spread of Covid-19 in South Africa. Available at: https://www.news24.com/news24/Analysis/analysis-behind-the-numbers-modelling-the-spread-of-covid-19-in-south-africa-20200521

 

COVID-19 RESEARCH PROJECTS

  1. Developing an epidemiological-macroeconomic model for South Africa (2022 -2 023): Funding was granted to develop Tekanelo, an epidemiological-economic modelling suite that incorporates the National COVID-19 Epi Model (NCEM), a compartmental transmission model that estimates the incidence of COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, and deaths in South Africa, and an application of an existing computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for South Africa, the University of Pretoria General Equilibrium Model (UPGEM). Funder: World Health Organisation
  2. Using mathematical modelling to optimising COVID-19 vaccination priority populations in South Africa (OPTIVAX-SA) (2021-2023): Funding was awarded to extend the National COVID-19 Epidemiological Model research on projecting cases and resources for the South African government to incorporate vaccination under different scenarios to support policy-makers in South Africa in deciding on an optimal national SARS-CoV-2 vaccination strategy. Funder: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
  3. Supporting decision-making for COVID-19 in South Africa (2022-2023): MASHA was funded to continuously update the South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium’s SACMC Epidemic Explorer to improve real-time situational awareness regarding SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics and burden at the national and provincial levels. Funder: USAID
  4. Developing a district-level model for the spread of COVID-19 in South Africa (2020): A jointly developed COVID-19 model is the current. MASHA received this funding to extend its model used to provide projections at the national and provincial levels, to a  spatial model at the district and develop a secure, online dashboard to disseminate model projections. Funder: Clinton Health Access Initiative
  5. Supporting decision-making for COVID-19 in Mozambique (2020): Through the COVID-19 International Modelling (CoMo) Consortium (Oxford University), MASHA provided senior modelling advice to the Oxford COVID-19 modelling efforts in Mozambique. The Consortium was working with partners in the National Ministry to use mathematical modelling to support key decisions that need to be made in their COVID-19 epidemic. Funder: CoMo Consortium
  6. Supporting decision-making for COVID-19 in Namibia (2020): MASHA lead the development of COVID-19 models through CDC Namibia for health officials in Namibia to advise on the COVID-19 response. 
  7. Developing model applications to support national malaria elimination strategy design and COVID-19 decision-making (2019-2022): The Research Innovation Award aims to develop computer-based model applications that can be used to predict the impact of malaria policy on a population of interest to aid the design of effective malaria policies. These tools will be made available to the National Malaria Control Programmes of South Africa, Namibia, Ghana and Cameroon. The project was extended to include COVID-19 modelling support and tool development. Funder: Wellcome Trust