Mathematical models have in the past provided a valuable framework for analysing the dynamics of malaria. MASHA’s research has a strong focus on using mathematical modelling to support malaria control and elimination strategy design, working alongside National Malaria Programmes and Ministries of Health to turn surveillance data into strategic information to support the policy makers in programme and funding decisions. 

Below are a list of completed and ongoing malaria projects, technical reports and publications.

PUBLICATIONS 

  1. Aparna Kollipara, Devanand Moonasar, Ryleen Balawanth, Sheetal P. Silal, Anthony Yuen, Katie Fox, Joseph Njau, Yogan G. Pillay & Mark Blecher (2023) Mobilizing resources with an investment case to mitigate cross-border malaria transmission and achieve malaria elimination in South Africa, Global Health Action, 16:1, DOI: 10.1080/16549716.2023.2205700
  2. Awine T, Silal SP (2022) Assessing the effectiveness of malaria interventions at the regional level in Ghana using a mathematical modelling application. PLOS Glob Public Health 2(12): e0000474. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pgph.0000474
  3. Silal, S. (2022). Seasonal targeting of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine: a complementary tool but sustained funding is required. The Lancet Global Health, Volume 10, Issue 12, e1693 - e1694 [invited commentary].https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(22)00477-6/fulltext
  4. Njau, J*., Silal, S.P*., Kollipara, A., Fox, K., Balawanth, R., Yuen, A., White, L.J., Moya, M., Pillay, Y., Moonasar, D. Investment case for malaria elimination in South Africa: a financing model for resource mobilization to accelerate regional malaria elimination. Malar J 20, 344 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-021-03875-z (* joint first author)
  5. Awine, T., Silal, S.P. (2020). Accounting for regional transmission variability and the impact of malaria control interventions in Ghana: a population level mathematical modelling approach. Malar J 19, 423. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-020-03496-y
  6. Shretta, R., Silal, S.P., Malm, K., Mohammed, W., Narh, J., Piccinini, D., Bertram, K., Rockwood, J. and Lynch, M., 2020. Estimating the risk of declining funding for malaria in Ghana: the case for continued investment in the malaria response. Malaria Journal, 19(1), pp.1-15.
  7. Shretta R, Silal S, White LJ and Maude RJ. (2019) Predicting the cost of malaria elimination in the Asia-Pacific. Wellcome Open Research, 4:73 
  8. Silal, S. P., Shretta, R., Celhay, O. J., Mercado, C. E. G., Saralamba, S., Maude, R. J., & White, L. J. (2019). Malaria elimination transmission and costing in the Asia-Pacific: a multi-species dynamic transmission model. Wellcome Open Research, 4.
  9. Shretta, R., Silal, S. P., Celhay, O. J., Mercado, C. E. G., Kyaw, S. S., Avancena, A., Fox, K., Zelman, B., Baral, R., White, L.J. & Maude, R. J. (2019). Malaria elimination transmission and costing in the Asia-Pacific: Developing an investment case. Wellcome Open Research, 4.
  10. Celhay, O. J., Silal, S. P., Maude, R. J., Mercado, C. E. G., Shretta, R., & White, L. J. (2019). An interactive application for malaria elimination transmission and costing in the Asia-Pacific.  Wellcome Open Research, 4.
  11. Awine, T., Malm, K., Peprah, NY., Silal, S.P., 2018. Spatio-temporal heterogeneity of malaria morbidity in Ghana: Analysis of routine health facility data. PloS one, 13(1), e0191707. 
  12. Awine, T., Malm, K., Bart-Plange, C., Silal, S.P., 2017. Towards malaria control and elimination in Ghana: challenges and decision making tools to guide planning. Global Health Action. 10(1) 
  13. Slater, H.C., Ross, A., Ouédraogo, A.L., White, L.J., Nguon, C., Walker, P.G., Ngor, P., Aguas, R., Silal, S.P., Dondorp, A.M. and La Barre, P., 2015. Assessing the impact of next-generation rapid diagnostic tests on Plasmodium falciparum malaria elimination strategies. Nature, 528(7580), pp.S94-S101.
  14. Silal, S. P., Little, F., Barnes, K. I., & White, L. J. (2015). Hitting a moving target: a model for malaria elimination in the presence of population movement. PloS one, 10(12), e0144990. 
  15. Silal, S.P., Little, F., Barnes, K.I. et al. Predicting the impact of border control on malaria transmission: a simulated focal screen and treat campaign. Malar J 14, 268 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-015-0776-2. 
  16. Silal, S.P., Little, F., Barnes, K.I., & White, L.J. (2014) Towards malaria elimination in Mpumalanga, South Africa: a population-level mathematical modelling approach. Malaria Journal, 13(1), 297. 
  17. Silal, S.P., Barnes, K.I., Kok, G., Mabuza, A., & Little, F.(2013).Exploring the seasonality of reported treated malaria cases in Mpumalanga, South Africa. PloS one, 8(10), e76640. 

TECHNICAL REPORTS

  1. Silal S., Moses M., Franco C., Celhay O., Fox K., Love E. (2021). An investment case to accelerate malaria elimination in the Guyana Shield. San Francisco: The Global Health Group, University of California, San Francisco. Available at: www.shrinkingthemalariamap.org
  2. Nketiah-Amponsah, E., Silal, S.P., Awine, T; (2020) Cost-Benefit Analyis of selected Malaria Interventions in Ghana. Ghana Priorities, Copenhagen Consensus Center, License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 4.0. Available at: https://www.copenhagenconsensus.com/sites/default/files/gp_malaria_-_final.pdf
  3. Shretta, R., Silal, S., Celhay, O., Mercado, C., Kyaw, S.S., Avancena, A.L.V., Fox, K., Zelman, B. Baral, R., White, L., Maude, R. (2017). Investing in Malaria Elimination in the Asia Pacific Region. The Global Health Group, University of California, San Francisco. Available at: http://www.shrinkingthemalariamap.org/sites/www.shrinkingthemalariamap.org/files/content/page/an-investment-case-for-eliminating-malaria-in-asia-pacific_web-ready-report.pdf
  4. Shretta, R., Silal, S., Celhay, O., Mercado, C.,Kyaw, S.S., Avan- cena, A.L.V., Fox, K., Zelman, B., Baral, R., Maude, R., White, L. (2017) Investing in Malaria Elimination in the Greater Mekong Subregion. The Global Health Group, University of California, San Francisco. Available at: http://www.shrinkingthemalariamap.org/sites/www.shrinkingthemalariamap.org/files/content/page/an-investment-case-for-eliminating-malaria-in-gms_final-report.pdf
  5. Zelman, B., Baral, R., Soeharno, N., Sucahya, P., Nadjib, M., Sariwati, E., Celhay, O., Mercado, C., Kyaw, S.S., Silal, S., Maude, R., White, L., Shretta, R (2017) An investment case for eliminating malaria in Indonesia. The Global Health Group, University of California, San Francisco. Available at: http://www.shrinkingthemalariamap.org/sites/www.shrinkingthemalariamap.org/files/content/page/an-investment-case-for-eliminating-malaria-in-indonesia_web-ready2-report.pdf
  6. Avanceña, A.L.V., Parr, W.,, Makita, L., Escobar, K., Baral, R., Celhay, O., Mercado, C., Kyaw, S.S., Silal, S., Maude, R., White, L., Shretta, R. (2017) An investment case for eliminating malaria in Papua New Guinea. The Global Health Group, University of California, San Francisco. Available at: http://www.shrinkingthemalariamap.org/sites/www.shrinkingthemalariamap.org/files/content/page/an-investment-case-for-malaria-elimination-in-png_web-ready-report.pdf
  7. Fox, K., Baral, R., Khan, W., Ching, S.P., Celhay, O., Mercado C., Kyaw, S.S., Silal, S., White, L., Maude, R., Shretta, R. (2017) An investment case for eliminating malaria in Bangladesh. The Global Health Group, University of California, San Francisco. Available at:http://www.shrinkingthemalariamap.org/sites/www.shrinkingthemalariamap.org/files/content/page/an-investment-case-for-eliminating-malaria-in-bangladesh.pdf

 

MALARIA RESEARCH PROJECTS

  1. Health RADAR: Responsible Access to Data for Analysis and Research (2023 - 2027): A barrier to entry for Climate Sensitive Infectious Disease (CSID) modelling is access to local, well documented data, presented in a format for ready analysis. In this project we will develop an open-source web-based platform in which we collate, curate and transform data to catalyse CSID modelling. The tool can be used to explore data across a range of diseases in several countries. The initial population of tool will be with malaria epidemiological, intervention and cost data from Southern Africa. Funder: Wellcome Trust. 
  2. MMALA: Malaria Modelling and Analytics: Leaders in Africa (2022 - 2025): The MMALA programme will promote the training and career development of a critical mass of African malaria modellers that can support decision making of national malaria control programmes (NMCPs). The programme seeks to increase the number of PhD-trained mathematical modellers with malaria expertise in sub-Saharan Africa institutions, and foster relationships with NCMPs from Benin, Botswana, Cameroon, Eswatini, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Thirteen PhD and 3 Postdoctoral candidates will be selected and provided with complementary coursework, research skills development, and secondment opportunities at their local NMCPs. The programme will also host regional and central events to help build networks and share expertise across this cohort of modellers and develop an open web resource for malaria cost data. Funder: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
  3. Developing model applications to support national malaria elimination strategy design in Africa (2019-2022): The Wellcome Trust funded project aims to develop computer-based model applications that can be used to predict the impact of malaria policy on a population of interest to aid the design of effective malaria policies. These tools will be made available to the National Malaria Control Programmes of South Africa, Namibia, Ghana and Cameroon. The project has since been extended to include COVID-19 modelling support. Funder: Wellcome Trust: Research Innovation Award
  4. ENDGAME: Enhanced modelling for NMCP Decision-making in the GMS to Accelerate Malaria Elimination (2019-2021): This project seeks to support country-led elimination efforts by filling key gaps in technical assistance for national malaria control programmes (NMCPs) with mathematical modelling and outbreak analysis. MASHA supported this study through the Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit where the focus was to produce a set of mathematical models for malaria elimination in countries in the GMS. Funder: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
  5. Investment Case for the elimination of malaria in the Guyana Shield (2020): An investment case was commissioned by the Global Fund to determine and mobilise resources to fill the funding gap required to achieve malaria elimination in the Guyana Shield (Brazil, French Guiana, Guyana, Suriname and Venezuela). MASHA, in collaboration with the Malaria Elimination Initiative, University of California, San Francisco, will conduct the mathematical modelling to project the path to and cost of malaria elimination in the region. Funder: The Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria
  6. Technical, operational, and financial feasibility of malaria elimination in Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, and Vanuatu (2019): The project for the Global Fund comprised a national level health system and financing analysis, undertaken by the World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for the Western Pacific (WPRO) in partnership with the Nossal Institute for Global Health at the University of Melbourne; and scenario-based modelling of elimination feasibility and resource requirements at national level, coupled with sub-national level operational feasibility assessments by MASHA in collaboration with the Malaria Elimination Initiative (MEI) at the University of California San Francisco (UCSF).  Funder: The Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria
  7. Estimating the Risk of Declining Funding for Malaria in Ghana (2019): An Investment Case for the Ghana Ministry of Health was completed in 2019, where the purpose of this study was to quantify the economic impact of a fully funded malaria response and the potential risks of withdrawing financing in order to shape the advocacy strategy for resource mobilization in Ghana. The costs and benefits of elimination were generated using a MASHA malaria transmission model that projected rates of decline to, and costs of elimination. This report, endorsed by the Ministry of Health, has be used to develop an effective resource mobilization strategy to facilitate advocacy actions to overcome the financial barriers to achieving malaria elimination in Ghana. Funder: Department for International Development (DFID)
  8. Investment Case for the elimination of malaria in South Africa (2018): An investment case was commissioned by the South African National Department of Health to determine and mobilise resources to fill the funding gap required to achieve malaria elimination. MASHA provided mathematical modelling support to project the path to and cost of malaria elimination. The recommendations of this study were used to secure additional domestic resources (ZAR 319 million) to fund malaria elimination in South Africa over the next two years. Funder: Malaria Elimination Initiative, University of California, San Francisco.
  9. METCAP: Malaria Elimination Transmission and Costing in the Asia-Pacific (2016-2017): The University of California San Francisco’s Global Health Group’s Malaria Elimination Initiative launched a comprehensive program of work “To increase and expand the amount of sustainable financing in support of achieving a malaria-free Asia Pacific by 2030”. MASHA supported the project through the development of a mathematical model and user interface to project the rates of decline to elimination by 2030 and determine the costs for and maintaining malaria elimination in the Asia Pacific region. Funder: Asian Development Bank
  10. Economic-epidemiological models to support malaria elimination in the Greater Mekong Sub-Region (2016-2018): Achieving malaria elimination by 2030 involves large-scale efforts by National Malaria Control Programmes (NMCP) and mathematical modelling is a tool that can be used to support the NMCPs in their efforts. In this project, mathematical modelling is conducted to serve the individual needs of NMCPs through the modelling of elimination-focused interventions at a national and subnational level. MASHA supported this collaboration through the Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit where the focus is to produce a mathematical model for malaria elimination in Cambodia. Funder: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation