Advancing Expertise through the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases 2023

04 Dec 2023 | By Hilja Hambeleleni Eelu,Gladstone Thabo Madito
2023 MMID
04 Dec 2023 | By Hilja Hambeleleni Eelu,Gladstone Thabo Madito

The annual Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases (MMID) short course, hosted by the Modelling and Simulation Hub, Africa (MASHA) at the University of Cape Town (UCT) since 2016, focuses on exploring mathematical modelling concepts for understanding infectious disease dynamics. The 2023 course held from the 26th of September to the 6th of October attracted 13 participants, including UCT and University of the Western Cape (UWC) students and healthcare professionals from a range of disciplines. Notable attendees included representatives from Medécins Sans Frontières (Doctors without Borders) and the SADC Malaria Elimination Eight initiative.

The course comprised of lectures, discussions, and practical exercises, delving into mathematical modelling and computer simulations to predict morbidity and mortality in infectious diseases like COVID-19, malaria, and immunisation strategies for diseases such as DTP (diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis). Participants engaged in hands-on exercises and interactive group exercises, focusing on techniques in compartmental, spatial, and age-structured models. The course also explored the role of climate on disease transmission and the impact of disease control interventions such as vaccines and quarantine, and participants used this newfound expertise to develop models for infectious diseases such as ebola, gonorrhoea, and COVID-19. Sessions on app development for reporting model results and stakeholder engagement were also featured.


Esther Ncube, a UWC PhD student in attendance remarked “The MMID short course exceeded my expectations…The hands-on exercises enhanced my modelling skills and writing code was particularly insightful”.

Throughout the course, discussions emphasised the importance of ethical data usage and economic evaluations. Esther further noted the course taught her the ability to incorporate health economics into compartmental models. 

Over the years, the course has expanded and past participants, including Jenna Patterson, Timothy Awine, and Saadiyah Mayet, have applied modelling in their work. Their continued collaboration with MASHA underscores the MMID course's value in enhancing the skills of students and professionals in infectious disease modelling. The course continues to evolve, and the call for the 2024 course is scheduled to open in September 2024.