1. Health RADAR: Responsible Access to Data for Analysis and Research (2023-2027): A barrier to entry for Climate Sensitive Infectious Disease (CSID) modelling is access to local, well documented data, presented in a format for ready analysis. In this project we will develop an open-source web-based platform in which we collate, curate and transform data to catalyse CSID modelling. The tool can be used to explore data across a range of diseases in several countries. The initial population of tool will be with malaria epidemiological, intervention and cost data from Southern Africa. Funder: Wellcome Trust.
  2. MMALA: Malaria Modelling and Analytics: Leaders in Africa (2022-2025): The MMALA programme will promote the training and career development of a critical mass of African malaria modellers that can support decision making of national malaria control programmes (NMCPs). The programme seeks to increase the number of PhD-trained mathematical modellers with malaria expertise in sub-Saharan Africa institutions, and foster relationships with NCMPs from Benin, Botswana, Cameroon, Eswatini, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Thirteen PhD and 3 Postdoctoral candidates will be selected and provided with complementary coursework, research skills development, and secondment opportunities at their local NMCPs. The programme will also host regional and central events to help build networks and share expertise across this cohort of modellers and develop an open web resource for malaria cost data. Funder: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
  3. Developing an epidemiological-macroeconomic model for South Africa (2022-2023): Funding was granted to develop Tekanelo, an epidemiological-economic modelling suite that incorporates the National COVID-19 Epi Model (NCEM), a compartmental transmission model that estimates the incidence of COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations, and deaths in South Africa, and an application of an existing computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for South Africa, the University of Pretoria General Equilibrium Model (UPGEM). Funder: World Health Organisation
  4. Supporting decision-making for COVID-19 in South Africa (2022-2023): MASHA was funded to continuously update the South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium’s SACMC Epidemic Explorer to improve real-time situational awareness regarding SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics and burden at the national and provincial levels. Funder: USAID
  5. Modelling Diphtheria – Tetanus – Pertussis vaccination in LMIC (2021-2024): A dynamic multi-disease model of diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis transmission and vaccination is being developed to test the impact of booster vaccine doses in older age groups. The model will be piloted with data from Uganda, with the goal to be developed into a tool to be made available to LMIC. Funder: US Center for Disease Control
  6. Using mathematical modelling to optimising COVID-19 vaccination priority populations in South Africa (OPTIVAX-SA) (2021-2023) : Funding was awarded to extend the National COVID-19 Epidemiological Model research on projecting cases and resources for the South African government to incorporate vaccination under different scenarios to support policy-makers in South Africa in deciding on an optimal national SARS-CoV-2 vaccination strategy. Funder: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
  7. Modelling the impact of increased testing of Syphilis in South Africa (2021-2022): A dynamic model of syphilis transmission is being developed to test the impact of scaling up testing of syphilis in South Africa, specifically targeting populations attending antenatal care and men’s health services. MASHA will develop the model and an accompanying secure application for users of this modelling tool. Funder: Clinton Health Access Initiative
  8. Investment Case for the elimination of malaria in the Guyana Shield (2020): An investment case was commissioned by the Global Fund to determine and mobilise resources to fill the funding gap required to achieve malaria elimination in the Guyana Shield (Brazil, French Guiana, Guyana, Suriname and Venezuela). MASHA, in collaboration with the Malaria Elimination Initiative, University of California, San Francisco, will conduct the mathematical modelling to project the path to and cost of malaria elimination in the region. Funder: The Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria
  9. Developing a district-level model for the spread of COVID-19 in South Africa (2020): A jointly developed COVID-19 model is the current. MASHA received this funding to extend its model used to provide projections at the national and provincial levels, to a spatial model at the district and develop a secure, online dashboard to disseminate model projections. Funder: Clinton Health Access Initiative
  10. Supporting decision-making for COVID-19 in Mozambique (2020): Through the COVID-19 International Modelling (CoMo) Consortium (Oxford University), MASHA provided senior modelling advice to the Oxford COVID-19 modelling efforts in Mozambique. The Consortium was working with partners in the National Ministry to use mathematical modelling to support key decisions that need to be made in their COVID-19 epidemic. Funder: CoMo Consortium
  11. Supporting decision-making for COVID-19 in Namibia (2020): MASHA lead the development of COVID-19 models through CDC Namibia for health officials in Namibia to advise on the COVID-19 response.
  12. Developing model applications to support national malaria elimination strategy design and COVID-19 decision-making (2019-2022): The Research Innovation Award aims to develop computer-based model applications that can be used to predict the impact of malaria policy on a population of interest to aid the design of effective malaria policies. These tools will be made available to the National Malaria Control Programmes of South Africa, Namibia, Ghana and Cameroon. The project was extended to include COVID-19 modelling support and tool development. Funder: Wellcome Trust
  13. Developing model applications to support national malaria elimination strategy design in Africa (2019-2022): The Wellcome Trust funded project aims to develop computer-based model applications that can be used to predict the impact of malaria policy on a population of interest to aid the design of effective malaria policies. These tools will be made available to the National Malaria Control Programmes of South Africa, Namibia, Ghana and Cameroon. The project has since been extended to include COVID-19 modelling support. Funder: Wellcome Trust: Research Innovation Award
  14. ENDGAME: Enhanced modelling for NMCP Decision-making in the GMS to Accelerate Malaria Elimination (2019-2021): This project seeks to support country-led elimination efforts by filling key gaps in technical assistance for national malaria control programmes (NMCPs) with mathematical modelling and outbreak analysis. MASHA supported this study through the Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit where the focus was to produce a set of mathematical models for malaria elimination in countries in the GMS. Funder: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
  15. Technical, operational, and financial feasibility of malaria elimination in Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, and Vanuatu (2019): The project for the Global Fund comprised a national level health system and financing analysis, undertaken by the World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for the Western Pacific (WPRO) in partnership with the Nossal Institute for Global Health at the University of Melbourne; and scenario-based modelling of elimination feasibility and resource requirements at national level, coupled with sub-national level operational feasibility assessments by MASHA in collaboration with the Malaria Elimination Initiative (MEI) at the University of California San Francisco (UCSF).  Funder: The Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria
  16. Estimating the Risk of Declining Funding for Malaria in Ghana (2019): An Investment Case for the Ghana Ministry of Health was completed in 2019, where the purpose of this study was to quantify the economic impact of a fully funded malaria response and the potential risks of withdrawing financing in order to shape the advocacy strategy for resource mobilization in Ghana. The costs and benefits of elimination were generated using a MASHA malaria transmission model that projected rates of decline to, and costs of elimination. This report, endorsed by the Ministry of Health, has be used to develop an effective resource mobilization strategy to facilitate advocacy actions to overcome the financial barriers to achieving malaria elimination in Ghana. Funder: Department for International Development (DFID).
  17. Evidence-Based Vaccinology: Is there Evidence to Introduce Routine Hepatitis A Vaccination in South Africa? (2018- 2022): PhD Supervisor: This study aims to generate evidence for decision making on whether a routine vaccination program against HAV should be introduced into the South African Expanded Program on Immunisations.  Funder: DST-NRF Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis
  18. Investment Case for the elimination of malaria in South Africa (2018): An investment case was commissioned by the South African National Department of Health to determine and mobilise resources to fill the funding gap required to achieve malaria elimination. MASHA provided mathematical modelling support to project the path to and cost of malaria elimination. The recommendations of this study were used to secure additional domestic resources (ZAR 319 million) to fund malaria elimination in South Africa over the next two years. Funder: Malaria Elimination Initiative, University of California, San Francisco
  19. Effect of vaccination strategy on the burden of pertussis in South Africa: A modelling proposal (2017- 2020): This study aimed to use mathematical modelling to predict the epidemiological and economic impact of different vaccination strategies to reduce the burden of pertussis in South Africa. This is a collaboration with Vaccines For Africa Initiative (VACFA) based at the University of Cape Town. The purpose of the project is to consider the epidemiological and economic impact of introducing booster doses at ages 4-6 and 9-12 and maternal vaccination. Funder: Sanofi S.A.
  20. Economic-epidemiological models to support malaria elimination in the Greater Mekong Sub-Region (2016-2018): Achieving malaria elimination by 2030 involves large-scale efforts by National Malaria Control Programmes (NMCP) and mathematical modelling is a tool that can be used to support the NMCPs in their efforts. In this project, mathematical modelling is conducted to serve the individual needs of NMCPs through the modelling of elimination-focused interventions at a national and subnational level. MASHA supported this collaboration through the Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit where the focus is to produce a mathematical model for malaria elimination in Cambodia. Funder: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
  21. METCAP: Malaria Elimination Transmission and Costing in the Asia-Pacific (2016-2017): The University of California San Francisco’s Global Health Group’s Malaria Elimination Initiative launched a comprehensive program of work “To increase and expand the amount of sustainable financing in support of achieving a malaria-free Asia Pacific by 2030”. MASHA supported the project through the development of a mathematical model and user interface to project the rates of decline to elimination by 2030 and determine the costs for and maintaining malaria elimination in the Asia Pacific region. Funder: Asian Development Bank