MMALA: Malaria Modelling and Analytics: Leaders in Africa (2022)
The MMALA programme will promote the training and career development of a critical mass of African malaria modellers that can support decision making of national malaria control programmes (NMCPs). The programme seeks to increase the number of PhD-trained mathematical modellers with malaria expertise in sub-Saharan Africa institutions, and foster relationships with NCMPs from Angola, Botswana, Eswatini, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Benin, Cameroon, and Ghana. Twelve PhD and 3 Postdoctoral candidates will be selected and provided with complementary coursework, research skills development, and secondment opportunities at their local NMCPs. The programme will also host regional and central events to help build networks and share expertise across this cohort of modellers and develop an open web resource for malaria cost data.
Modelling Diphtheria – Tetanus – Pertussis vaccination in LMIC (2021)
A dynamic multi-disease model of diphtheria, tetanus and pertussis transmission and vaccination is being developed to test the impact of booster vaccine doses in older age groups. The model will be piloted with data from Uganda, with the goal to be developed into a tool to be made available to LMIC. Funder: US Center for Disease Control [Principal Investigator] (USD 156,000)
Modelling the impact of increased testing of Syphilis in South Africa (2021)
A dynamic model of syphilis transmission is being developed to test the impact of scaling up testing of syphilis in South Africa, specifically targeting populations attending antenatal care and men’s health services. MASHA will develop the model and an accompanying secure application for users of this modelling tool. Funder: Clinton Health Access Initiative [Principal Investigator] (ZAR 350,000)
Developing a district level model for the spread of COVID-19 in South Africa (2020)
A jointly developed COVID-19 model is the current model being used to provide projections at the national and provincial levels. MASHA will extend this model spatially to the district level and include stratification by age in 10-year bands. MASHA will build a secure, online dashboard to disseminate model projections. Funder: Clinton Health Access Initiative [Principal Investigator] (ZAR 1.75 million)
Supporting decision-making for COVID-19 in South Africa (2020)
The disease models developed jointly by the Modelling and Simulation Hub, Africa (MASHA) and are already in use by the National government of South Africa to support decision-making on the COVID-19 epidemic. As a member of the South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium, a group of experts convened to provide technical support to decision makers tackling the COVID-19 epidemic in South Africa, MASHA is well placed to conduct relevant, impactful research on epidemic modelling.
Supporting decision-making for COVID-19 in Mozambique (2020)
Through the COVID-19 International Modelling (CoMo) Consortium (Oxford University), MASHA took the role of the senior modeller advising Oxford COVID-19 modelling in Mozambique. The Consortium is working with partners in the National Ministry to use mathematical modelling to support key decisions that need to be made in their COVID-19 epidemic. [Principal Investigator]
Supporting decision-making for COVID-19 in Namibia (2020)
MASHA is currently engaged with health officials in Namibia to advise on COVID-19 modelling conducted for the country.
Developing model applications to support national malaria elimination strategy design and COVID-19 decision-making (2019-2021)
The project aims to develop computer-based model applications that can be used to predict the impact of malaria policy on a population of interest to aid the design of effective malaria policies. These tools will be made available to the National Malaria Control Programmes of South Africa, Namibia, Ghana and Cameroon. The project has since been extended to include COVID-19 modelling support. [Principal Investigator] Funder: Wellcome Trust: Research Innovation Award (ZAR 9.75 million)
ENDGAME: Enhanced modelling for NMCP Decision-making in the GMS to Accelerate Malaria Elimination (2019-2021)
This project seeks to support country-led elimination efforts by filling key gaps in technical assistance for national malaria control programmes (NMCPs) with mathematical modelling and outbreak analysis. MASHA is supporting this study through the Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit where my focus is to produce a set of mathematical models for malaria elimination in countries in the GMS. Funder: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Effect of vaccination strategy on the burden of pertussis in South Africa: A modelling proposal (2017- 2020)
This study aimed to use mathematical modelling to predict the epidemiological and economic impact of different vaccination strategies to reduce the burden of pertussis in South Africa. This is a collaboration with Vaccines For Africa Initiative (VACFA) based at the University of Cape Town. The purpose of the project is to consider the epidemiological and economic impact of introducing booster doses at ages 4-6 and 9-12 and maternal vaccination. [Co-Investigator] Funder: Sanofi S.A. (ZAR 1.5 million]
Evidence-Based Vaccinology: Is there Evidence to Introduce Routine Hepatitis A Vaccination in South Africa? (2018- 2020)
PhD Supervisor: This study aims to generate evidence for decision making on whether a routine vaccination program against HAV should be introduced into the South African Expanded Program on Immunisations. MASHA is providing mathematical modelling support. Funder: DST-NRF Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis
Investment Case for the elimination of malaria in the Guyana Shield (2020)
An investment case was commissioned by the Global Fund to determine and mobilise resources to fill the funding gap required to achieve malaria elimination in the Guyana Shield (Brazil, French Guiana, Guyana, Suriname and Venezuela). MASHA, in collaboration with the Malaria Elimination Initiative, University of California, San Francisco, will conduct the mathematical modelling to project the path to and cost of malaria elimination in the region. Funder: The Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria
Technical, operational, and financial feasibility of malaria elimination in Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste, and Vanuatu (2019)
The project for the Global Fund comprised a national level health system and financing analysis, undertaken by the World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for the Western Pacific (WPRO) in partnership with the Nossal Institute for Global Health at the University of Melbourne; and scenario-based modelling of elimination feasibility and resource requirements at national level, coupled with sub-national level operational feasibility assessments by the MASHA in collaboration with the Malaria Elimination Initiative (MEI) at the University of California San Francisco (UCSF). Funder: Malaria Elimination Initiative, University of California, San Francisco.
Investment Case for the elimination of malaria in South Africa (2018)
An investment case was commissioned by the South African National Department of Health to determine and mobilise resources to fill the funding gap required to achieve malaria elimination. I provided mathematical modelling support to project the path to and cost of malaria elimination. The recommendations of this study were used to secure additional domestic resources (ZAR 319 million) to fund malaria elimination in South Africa over the next two years. Funder: Malaria Elimination Initiative, University of California, San Francisco.
Support to Global Fund on Application of Disease Transmission Models & Costing Tools (2018 – 2020)
Preferred suppliers to the Global Fund to provide technical, modelling and economic support to National Malaria Control Programmes. Funder: The Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria
METCAP: Malaria Elimination Transmission and Costing in the Asia-Pacific (2016-2017)
The University of California San Francisco’s Global Health Group’s Malaria Elimination Initiative launched a comprehensive program of work “To increase and expand the amount of sustainable financing in support of achieving a malaria-free Asia Pacific by 2030”. I supported the project through the development of a mathematical model and user interface to project the rates of decline to elimination by 2030 and determine the costs for and maintaining malaria elimination in the Asia Pacific region. Funder: Asian Development Bank
Economic-epidemiological models to support malaria elimination in the Greater Mekong Sub-Region (2016-2018)
Achieving malaria elimination by 2030 involves large-scale efforts by National Malaria Control Programmes (NMCP) and mathematical modelling is a tool that can be used to support the NMCPs in their efforts. In this project, mathematical modelling is conducted to serve the individual needs of NMCPs through the modelling of elimination-focused interventions at a national and subnational level. MASHA is supporting this collaboration through the Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit where my focus is to produce a mathematical model for malaria elimination in Cambodia. Funder: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation