Research Papers and Refereed Articles
Melnychuk, M.C., Kurota, H., Mace, P.M., Pons, M., Minto, C., Osio, G.C., Jensen, O.P., de Moor, C.L., Parma, A.M., Little, L.R., Hively, D., Ashbrook, C.E., Baker, N., Amoroso, R.O., Branch, T.A., Anderson, C.M., Szuwalski, C.S., Baum, J.K., McClanahan, T., Ye, Y., Ligas, A., Bensbai, J., Thompson, G.G., DeVore, J., Magnusson, A., Bogstad, B., Wort, E., Rice, J. and Hilborn, R. Identifying management actions that promote sustainable fisheries. Submitted to Nature Sustainability.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-020-00668-1 Hilborn, R., Hively, D., Baker, N., de Moor, C.L., Kurota, H., Kathena, J.N., Mace, P., Minto, C., Parma, A.M., Quiroz J.C., Melnychuk, M. Global status of groundfish stocks. Accepted to Fish and Fisheries.
http://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12560.
Siple, M. C., Koehn, L. E., Johnson, K-F., Punt, A.E., Canales, T.M., Carpi, P., de Moor, C.L., De Oliveira, J.A.A., Gao, J., Jacobson, N.S., Lam, M.E., Licandeo, R., Lindegren, M., Ma, S., Óskarsson, G.J., Sanchez-Maroño, S., Smoliński, S., Surma, S., Tian, Y., Tommasi, D., Gutiérrez Torero, M., Trenkel, V., Zador, S.G. and Zimmermann, F. Considerations for management strategy evaluation for small pelagic fishes. Fish and Fisheries.
https://doi.org/10.1111/faf.12579.
Non-Peer reviewed published Conference Proceedings
Butterworth, D.S. and Rademeyer, R.A. Further refinements of the BR CMP. SCRS/2021/018. Collect. Vol. Sci. Pap. Vol 78(3): 146-158.
Butterworth, D.S., Rademeyer, R.A. and Carruthers, T.R. On comparing CMPs across different development tunings and the associated pertinence of OM weighting. SCRS/2021/022. Collect. Vol. Sci. Pap. Vol 78(3): 181-197.
Butterworth, D.S. and Rademeyer, R.A. Yet further refinements of the BR CMP. SCRS/2021/042. Collect. Vol. Sci. Pap. Vol 78(3): 477-505.
Butterworth, D.S. and Rademeyer, R.A. Refinements of the BR CMP as at July 2021. SCRS/2021/121. Collect. Vol. Sci. Pap. Vol 78(3): 590-615.
Butterworth, D.S. and Rademeyer, R.A. Short-term constant catch projections for the Atlantic bluefin stocks based on the reconditioned MSE Operating Models. SCRS/2021/143. Collect. Vol. Sci. Pap. Vol 78(3): 798-805.
Butterworth, D.S. and Rademeyer, R.A. Refinement of the BR CMP as at August 2021. SCRS/2021/152. Collect. Vol. Sci. Pap. Vol 78(3): 1073-1097.
Unpublished Research/Technical/Policy Documents
Brandão, A., Ross-Gillespie, A., Vermeulen, E. and Butterworth, D.S. Updated extension of a photo-identification based assessment model to southern right whales in South African waters to allow for the possibility of an early abortion of the calf in the model. International Whaling Commission: SC/68C/SH/05: 35pp.
PowerPoint Presentations
Butterworth, D.S., Brandão, A. and Johnston, S.J. Report on the development of harvest strategies for key target species in the SIOFA area. Presented to the SIOFA SERAWG meeting 8-9 March 2021: 21pp.
Butterworth, D.S. Management procedures. Why has implementation been so slow? Presentation to the World Fisheries Congress, 23 September 2021: 22pp.
de Moor, C. A case for higher critical biomass threshold in the anchovy-only OMP-18rev than in OMP-18. Virtual presentation to the Small Pelagic Scientific Working Group, Cape Town, 13 December, 2021: 16pp.
de Moor, C. Results towards the selection of OMP-18rev. Virtual presentation to the Small Pelagic Scientific Working Group, Cape Town, 13 December, 2021: 12pp.
Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Updated 2021 assessments and projections of west coast rock lobster. Presentation to the West Coast rock lobster scientific working group, 11 August 2021: 28pp.
Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Further results and projections for west coast rock lobster. Presentation to the West Coast rock lobster scientific working group, 20 August 2021: 15pp.
SIOFA
Butterworth, D.S., Brandão, A. and Johnston, S.J. Report on the development of Harvest Strategies for key target special in the SIOFA area (Project code SE2020-01). Report presented to the SIOFA SERAWG meeting 8-9 March 2021: 42pp.
Tristan
Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Impact of possible catch roll-overs at Gough island. MARAM document: MARAM/TRISTAN/2021/FEB/01: 5pp.
Johnston, S.J. Exceptional Circumstances rule for the Tristan OMP 2020 when one or more data inputs are unavailable. MARAM document: MARAM/TRISTAN/2021/FEB/02: 5pp.
Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Updated (and rescaled) Tristan Island GLM-standardised Jasus tristani lobster CPUE to take account of data for the 2020 season. MARAM document: MARAM/TRISTAN/2021/MAY/02: 11pp.
Johnston, S.J. Exceptional Circumstances rule for the Tristan OMP 2020 when one or more data inputs are unavailable. MARAM document: MARAM/TRISTAN.2021/MAY/03: 5pp.
Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Updated 2021 assessments of Jasus tristani rock lobster at Gough Island. MARAM document: MARAM/TRISTAN/2021/MAY/04: 32pp.
Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Updated 2021 Inaccessible Island assessments. MARAM document: MARAM/TRISTAN/2021/MAY/05: 16pp.
Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Updated 2021 GLMM-standardised lobster CPUE from Gough Island of the Tristan da Cunha outer group of islands. MARAM document: MARAM/TRISTAN/2021/MAY/06: 11pp.
Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Updated 2021 GLMM-standardised lobster CPUE from Inaccessible and Nightingale islands. MARAM document: MARAM/TRISTAN/2021/JUN/07: 12pp.
Johnston, S.J. Initial Gough CMP results. MARAM document: MARAM/TRISTAN/2021/JUN/08: 12pp.
Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Recommendations on rock lobster TACs for Tristan and Nightingale islands for the 2021/22 season. MARAM document: MARAM/TRISTAN/2021/JUN/10: 5pp.
Johnston, S.J. Further Gough OMP candidate results. MARAM document: MARAM/TRISTAN/2021/JUN/09: 11pp.
Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Revised 2021 assessment of Jasus tristani rock lobster at Gough island. MARAM document: MARAM/TRISTAN/2021/JUL/11: 13pp.
Johnston, S.J. Revised CMP results for VAR6, VAR5.5 and VAR5. MARAM document: MARAM/TRISTAN/2021/JUL/12: 4pp.
Johnston, S.J. Extended CMP results for VAR6, VAR5.5 and VAR5 for Gough island lobster. MARAM document: MARAM/TRISTAN/2021/JUL/13: 11pp.
Johnston, S.J. Inaccessible CMP results. MARAM document: MARAM/TRISTAN/2021/JUL/14: 13pp.
Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Recommendations on rock lobster TACs for Gough and Inaccessible islands for the 2021/22 season. MARAM document: MARAM/TRISTAN/2021/JUL/15: 5pp.
Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Summary of recommendations on rock lobster TACs for the Tristan group of islands for the 2021/22 season. MARAM document: MARAM/TRISTAN/2021/JUL/16: 2pp.
Consultancy and Other Activities Based on Expertise Developed in Research
Brandão, A. and Butterworth, D.S. Updated analyses of the Fisheries Independent Monitoring Survey data of the rock lobster resource of South Africa to include the 2019/20 season. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-WCRL/01: 19pp.
Brandão, A. and Butterworth, D.S. Updated trends in poaching for west coast rock lobster from modelling the “old” and the “new” databases simultaneously. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-WCRL/02: 11pp.
Brandão, A. and Butterworth, D.S. Compliance poaching trends updated up to 2020 for west coast rock lobster from modelling the “old” and the “new” databases simultaneously. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-WCRL/11: 12pp.
Brandão, A. and Butterworth, D.S. Updated analyses of the Fisheries Independent Monitoring Survey data of the rock lobster resource of South Africa to include the 2020/21 season. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-WCRL/12: 19pp.
Brandão, A. and Butterworth, D.S. Results of residual analyses and a further sensitivity to “outlier” omission of the model to obtain Compliance poaching trends for west coast rock lobster. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/AUG/SWG-WCRL/17: 10pp.
Brandão, A. and Butterworth, D.S. The 2020 Operational Management Procedure for the toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) resource in the Prince Edward islands vicinity. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-DEM/09: 10pp.
Brandão, A. and Butterworth, D.S. Updated ''Replacement Yield'' model fit to catch and survey data for the south coast and for the west coast kingklip resource of South Africa. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/OCT/SWG-DEM/18: 12pp.
Brandão, A. and Butterworth, D.S. Updated GLMM standardised trotline CPUE series for the toothfish resource in the prince Edward islands EEZ to include data up to the 2020 season. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/OCT/SWG-DEM/22: 7pp.
Brandão, A. and Butterworth, D.S. Application of OMP-2020 for the toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) resource in the Prince Edward islands vicinity to provide a TAC recommendation for the 2022 “fishing” year. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/OCT/SWG-DEM/23: 4pp.
Brandão, A. and Butterworth, D.S. Update of the Reference case assessment of the toothfish (Dissostichus eleginoides) resource in the Prince Edward Islands vicinity. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/OCT/SWG-DEM/26: 12pp.
Butterworth, D.S. Suggestions for Common Data and Model Structure for Island Closures Analyses. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JAN/SWG-PEL/02: 7pp.
Butterworth, D.S. The Penguin decline - where should most analysis effort really be focused? DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/MAR/SWG-PEL/10: 4pp.
Butterworth, D.S. A proposed structured framework for providing scientific advice on possible responses to the decline in the numbers of African penguins. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/MAR/SWG-PEL/12: 4pp.
Butterworth, D.S. and Ross-Gillespie, A. A summary of results for the island closure experiment. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SEG-PEL/36: 4pp.
Butterworth, D.S. and Ross-Gillespie, A. A revised summary of results for the island closure experiment. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-PEL/41: 5pp.
Butterworth, D.S. and Ross-Gillespie, A. Comparison of the GLMM year effect variance from models of west coast response variables in the island closure experiment with the variance of anchovy recruitment. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUL/SWG-PEL/42: 3pp.
Butterworth, D.S. and Ross-Gillespie, A. A regression-based estimate of the November 2020 sardine recruitment strength based on the June 2021 recruitment survey results. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUL/SWG-PEL/52: 7pp.
Butterworth, D.S. and Ross-Gillespie, A. A response to some queries concerning the revised summary of results for the island closure experiment provided in FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-PEL/41. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/SEP/SWG-PEL/59: 6pp.
de Moor, C.L. The formulae used to set the 2021 initial anchovy TAC. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JAN/SWG-PEL/06: 2pp.
de Moor, C.L. The operating model for an anchovy-only OMP-18rev. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/APR/SWG-PEL/20rev: 8pp.
de Moor, C.L. Exploitation rates corresponding to 2021 sardine TACs and TABs. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/APR/SWG-PEL/21: 4pp.
de Moor, C.L., Merkle, D., Coetzee, J. and van der Lingen, C.D. The data used in the 2021 sardine assessment. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHEREIS/2021/SPR/SWG-PEL/22: 27pp.
de Moor, C.L. Updated assessment of the South African sardine resource using data from 1984-2020. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/APR/SWG-PEL/23: 22pp.
de Moor, C.L. Sardine projections based on constant catch scenarios. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/APR/SWG-PEL/27: 13pp.
de Moor, C.L. Further sardine projections based on constant catch scenarios. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/MAY/SWG-PEL/33: 12pp.
de Moor, C.L. Using the ratio of juvenile sardine:anchovy estimated by the June 2021 recruit survey be used to predict the 2021 small sardine bycatch with anchovy. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-PEL/37: 3pp.
de Moor, C.L. Results towards the selection of OMP-18rev. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUL/SWG-PEL/38REV: 16pp.
de Moor, C.L. A sensitivity test to the assessment of the South African sardine resource based on an alternative estimate of November 2020 biomass. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUL/SWG-PEL/48: 7pp.
de Moor, C.L. Final anchovy TAC for 2021. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUL/SWG-PEL/50: 3 pp.
de Moor, C.L. A starting point for objectives for the next South African joint sardine-anchovy OMP. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUL/SWG-PEL/53: 2pp.
de Moor, C.L. Further outputs corresponding to OMP-18rev. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/OCT/SWG-PEL/60rev: 47pp.
de Moor, C.L. Sensitivity of the sardine assessment and projection models to final year survey length frequency information. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/OCT/SWG-PEL/62: 7pp.
de Moor, C.L. Testing the sardine assessment for use at the end of 2021. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/DEC/SWG-PEL/63: 22pp.
de Moor, C.L. Sardine projections based on constant catch scenarios. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/DEC/SWG-PEL/64: 15pp.
de Moor, C.L. Changes in anchovy maturity assumptions over time. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/DEC/SWG-PEL/67: 3pp.
de Moor, C.L. A case for a higher critical biomass threshold in the anchovy-only OMP-18rev than in OMP-18. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/DEC/SWG-PEL/68: 5pp.
de Moor, C.L. Alternative options for progressing towards TAC recommendations for 2022 with/out survey estimates of sardine and anchovy biomasses. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/DEC/SWG-PEL/70: 3pp.
de Moor, C.L. OMP-18rev: The revised 2018 Operational Management Procedure for the South African anchovy fishery. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/DEC/SWG-PEL/71. 17pp.
Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Updated 2020 poaching time series for use in the west coast rock lobster population models. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-WCRL/03: 9pp.
Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Updated 2020 assessments and deterministic projections for west coast rock lobster. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-WCRL/04: 27pp.
Johnston, S.J. Summary of 2020 views with regards to west coast rock lobster poaching. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-WCRL/06: 3pp.
Johnston, S.J. Summary of 2020 updated west coast rock lobster stock assessments. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-WCRL/07: 2pp.
Johnston, S.J. Brief summary of the reasons underlying the WCRL SWG west coast rock lobster TAC recommendations for the 2020/21 season. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-WCRL/08: 2pp.
Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. A suggested new approach to combine estimates of illegally exported and locally sold west coast rock lobster. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/AUG/SWG-WCRL/18: 11pp.
Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Final poaching trends using the new approach to combine estimates of illegally exported and locally sold west coast rock lobster. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUL/SWGTT-WCRL/19: 12pp.
Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Updated 2021 assessments and initial projections of the west coast rock lobster resource. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/AUG/SWG-WCRL/20: 34pp.
Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Results of “Future work” identified at previous SWG meeting and further projections. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/AUG/SWG-WCRL/23: 21pp.
Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Updating and modifying the 2020 south coast rock lobster assessment. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-SCRL/01: 20pp.
Johnston, S.J. South coast rock lobster OMP revision scheduled for 2022. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-SCRL/03: 1pp.
Johnston, S.J. South coast rock lobster TAC for the 2021 season. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUL/SWG-SCRL/07: 2pp.
Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Updated 2021 horse mackerel data and assessment model description. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/OCT/SWG-DEM/14: 21pp.
Johnston, S.J. and Butterworth, D.S. Updated 2021 horse mackerel assessments and projections. DFFE Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/OCT/SWG-DEM/15: 23pp.
Ross-Gillespie, A. and Butterworth, D.S. An initial implementation of suggestions by the 2020 Panel to improve estimates of the effect of fishing around islands on penguins by using models with random effects and applied to both aggregated and disaggregated data. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/APR/SWG-PEL/24. 19pp.
Ross-Gillespie, A. and Butterworth, D.S. Re-analysis of the Island Closure Experiment results to implement the Suggestions of the December 2020 International Panel. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-PEL/35: 40pp.
Ross-Gillespie, A. and Butterworth, D.S. Updated analysis of results from data arising from the Island Closure Experiment. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-PEL/39rev: 15pp.
Ross-Gillespie, A. and Butterworth, D.S. Update to the hake Reference Case model incorporating the 2019 commercial and 2020 survey data. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/JUN/SWG-DEM/07: 15pp.
Ross-Gillespie, A. and Butterworth, D.S. Output from the South African Hake OMP-2018 for the 2022 TAC recommendation. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/OCT/SWG-DEM/20. 9pp.
Ross-Gillespie, A. and Butterworth, D.S. Update to the hake Reference Case model incorporating the 2020 commercial and 2021 survey data. DEFF Fisheries document: FISHERIES/2021/OCT/SWG-DEM/21. 12pp.
