From Models to Impact: Professor Sheetal Silal Highlights the Power of Mathematical Modelling in Public Health
Mathematical modelling is playing an increasingly critical role in how public health systems understand and respond to infectious diseases. At a recent inaugural lecture at the University of Cape Town (UCT), Professor Sheetal Silal, director of the Modelling and Simulation Hub, Africa (MASHA), highlighted how modelling can transform complex data into actionable insights that support effective decision-making.
Delivering her lecture titled “Models, Policy and People: Predicting Health Impact in a Complex World”, Professor Silal demonstrated how mathematical models allow researchers to simulate the spread of diseases within populations. These models effectively create a “virtual reality” of outbreaks, enabling policymakers to test potential interventions, assess outcomes and respond more efficiently to emerging health threats.
Reflecting on the broader purpose of her work, Professor Silal underscored the responsibility of scientists in public health, noting that:
“A scientist who is also a human being cannot rest while knowledge which might be used to reduce suffering rests on the shelf.”
Her work highlights the importance of ensuring that scientific knowledge does not remain theoretical but is actively translated into interventions that reduce disease burden and improve lives. This approach is particularly valuable in contexts where timely decisions are crucial. By using modelling and simulation, it is possible to draw on decades of epidemiological data and project outcomes within a short time frame, supporting faster and more informed public health responses.
Reflecting on her journey, Professor Silal highlighted how her path into mathematical modelling evolved from initial studies in actuarial science to a passion for applying mathematics to real-world health challenges. Her career has been shaped by mentorship, interdisciplinary collaboration, and a commitment to ensuring that data-driven insights reach those who need them most—policymakers, clinicians, and communities.
At MASHA, modelling is used as a decision-support tool to better understand the dynamics of infectious diseases and guide interventions. The work spans a range of diseases, including malaria, COVID‑19, and other vaccine-preventable illnesses such as measles and rubella. A key focus of Professor Silal’s work is ensuring that complex modelling outputs are clearly communicated and accessible to decision-makers. By translating technical findings into meaningful insights, MASHA helps bridge the gap between scientific research and public health policy, ensuring that evidence can be effectively used to improve outcomes.
Beyond its technical capabilities, mathematical modelling also plays a broader role in strengthening public health systems. It enables collaboration between scientists, policymakers and healthcare professionals, fostering a more integrated approach to managing infectious diseases.
Professor Silal’s lecture highlighted that the true value of modelling extends beyond prediction. Its impact lies in its ability to inform decisions that protect lives, strengthen systems, and improve health outcomes. The lecture reinforces a broader vision in which African-led research and modelling play a central role in global health strategy. By linking science, policy and people, MASHA continues to contribute to improving public health across Africa and beyond. Through collaboration, innovation, and a focus on impact, MASHA continues to contribute to the development of resilient, equitable, and evidence-driven health systems.
For more details, read the full UCT article: The power of mathematical modelling in infectious disease outcomes